Observation and the Trade for Monday's Market
The market was so erratic for the past month and was on the verge of dropping hard but some participants are not that in one conviction, pulling each other's throat that turns the market on a zigzag mode. The daily chart (below) of the S&P shows a deep cup with a handle pattern but the handle is extending, which is showing a concern as far as this humble market observer 'crystalizes'. The bars (red) especially the bigger ones are very 'scary', they are on the verge of dropping hard at any moment. I guess the bears are anticipating shorting the market here, while the bulls are just making it safe by putting a hard 'stop' for protection. If that happens, expect a brief hard push upwards for a 'short squeeze' and then on the way to the bottom?
For the Gold, there is no sign of relief unless John Paulson will buy the market here, but that is a foregone observation. But no one knows, except that it is dropping slowly, like squeezing one's neck bit by bit until it loses its breath - that's scary. Just take the Gold day by day, and monitor the Chinese or the Indian's angst for Gold, they might buy the yellow metal in bulk, if that happens, trade in-between to capture the abrupt move in case.
As for the Crude, it is moving upwards, it still a good swing here, but most likely a very tight fight between participant's opposing views. The best trade is on a day to day basis, probably on a short time frame. Expect a hard drop and hard push upwards, but it depends on how participants behave, so watch for it. Unless some major on-goings overseas might happened, especially of that in the Eastern Europe?, so be very vigilant out there traders.
Check the Calendar Events below for guidance.
http://mam.econoday.com/byweek.asp?day=31&month=3&year=2014&cust=mam&lid=0
'Trading is a process of observing the market's action until such a time you can find and form trading ideas and get involved.'**
Saturday, March 29, 2014
Friday, March 28, 2014
Friday's Market
Though today's market, Friday, supposed to be a profit taking day, but the ES made a surprise move, it surge vertically in the open that caught some participants off guard and were left out, or what they call a short 'squeeze'?
The Gold continues its downward projection that there is no sign of relief, I guess its 'melting' will last to the last ounce, not a good sign.
As for the Crude, it is surging slowly, lots of motorist are still filling their old SUV with premium gasoline, Elon Musk should lower the cost of his Tesla cars to prevent the surging cost of the Crude I guess.
The Gold continues its downward projection that there is no sign of relief, I guess its 'melting' will last to the last ounce, not a good sign.
As for the Crude, it is surging slowly, lots of motorist are still filling their old SUV with premium gasoline, Elon Musk should lower the cost of his Tesla cars to prevent the surging cost of the Crude I guess.
Thursday, March 27, 2014
Trading By Myself
Just to summarize my Crude trade that I had shown in real time (though delayed a bit, but if you are alert even though you're a little bit late in seeing my alert, you can still gain from my humble tip(s)) about my 'Tip Alert' post, I am just going to show here or prove that I can make a trade based from my own learning through technical observation without employing 'sophistication'.
As you can see from my alert, I've shown a 1-hr chart with a box showing the hard bounce and the hard drop in succession, four days of bouncing from the s/r level (you just have to figure that out for you to learn, I am doing this for educational too). I am just making my own interpretation from this box as a 'Darvas' ( I just don't know if that's what really is, I don't care but that's how I do my own observation, that's why my blog is about that).
So from this observation, if you are (only) observant in the market (and was reading the 'minds of the market'), you know the market is an exercise of human behavior, so you have to learn more about psychology in this case. With this kind of pattern, the most probable outcome is for the market to move up. Why did I came up with that? Simple, have you seen the 'rapid' move upwards on the left side (the one that I cover (half of it) when I drew the rectangular box. That's my basis that it is going to make a move.
Also, from the 5-hr chart, the pattern is a 'saucer pan'?, or a shallow cup with a handle pattern ( we need to familiarize ourselves with the different market patterns, that's important), signaling a bullish move is in the works.
As you can see from my alert, I've shown a 1-hr chart with a box showing the hard bounce and the hard drop in succession, four days of bouncing from the s/r level (you just have to figure that out for you to learn, I am doing this for educational too). I am just making my own interpretation from this box as a 'Darvas' ( I just don't know if that's what really is, I don't care but that's how I do my own observation, that's why my blog is about that).
So from this observation, if you are (only) observant in the market (and was reading the 'minds of the market'), you know the market is an exercise of human behavior, so you have to learn more about psychology in this case. With this kind of pattern, the most probable outcome is for the market to move up. Why did I came up with that? Simple, have you seen the 'rapid' move upwards on the left side (the one that I cover (half of it) when I drew the rectangular box. That's my basis that it is going to make a move.
Also from the daily chart below, the big bullish bar is a sign that there is a follow through.
That's the basis of making that trade through my own observation, that's what I call 'looking at the whole market structure'.
See, Crude is still cruising as of this posting...
Wednesday, March 26, 2014
Crude's Rallying Point?
I guess this time Crude might rally, the last time I am anticipating to make its move and that was two days ago was stalled, this time there is a chance it will...it was a battle of hard bounce and a hard drop the last four trading days...I think that was enough already, and this is the time now, let's see...
What's Going On?
As of this posting, the market is still dropping, it doesn't show any sign of recovery, usually by this time it is showing a sign of 'breathing', but as of this moment there is no sign of recovery, what's going on Mr. Market?...
Tuesday, March 25, 2014
About Market 'Change'
I was just talking about this from my recent post about 'change' in the market...
http://seekingalpha.com/article/2107633-when-the-facts-change-then-we-change-investors-should-consider-midas-golds-significant-upside
http://seekingalpha.com/article/2107633-when-the-facts-change-then-we-change-investors-should-consider-midas-golds-significant-upside
When Market Change...
What else could you do when the market reverses, except just accept what it do and what it does, like today's market. So when market 'change', you should 'change' too...no need to think further, by just looking at it, you know what it's going to do...
Gold's Two 'h' Pattern
From this one-hour chart, I guess two 'h' pattern is enough, a third one is too much? What do you think Gold 'diggers'? I guess for today's session, a sideways or third drop is the battle, but by Wednesday and Thursday, a consolidation for the hard bounce is expected. Let's see.
Tip Alert: Crude's Possible Upside
Shown is the one-hour chart of the Crude prior to Calendar event(s) housing report by 10 am ET. I guess based from this chart, a possible upside for the Crude is possible. Two consecutive 'Darvas' box? is the basis for my observation.
Monday, March 24, 2014
Bear Flag Trade Setup
This time the market tumble some more with that bear flag pattern, surrendering further to selling pressure.
Saturday, March 22, 2014
Weekly's Market Random Thoughts
The market bullish sentiment is on idle situation with that bearish red bar with a long wick tail. Though it recovers heavily within a week, but I guess there is this tendency/sentiment from participants that there is a possible consolidation in the offing. It might drop a little bit but nobody knows, but that bar is a big concern. But from this humble market observer's point of view, the market is still on the way up with that (deep) cup with a handle pattern.
As for the Gold, that's the hardest part to make a view from the technical side, it's way too low from the ema's/ma's. I guess it might take a long time to get back from the three consecutive days of 'hard' setback. Three days of hard drop is going to take a while to recover, no idea what Gold will do from this scenario. Will take it day by day, let's just wait and watch how the HFT's miraculous ('maneuveristic') approach might/will do.
As for the Crude, it will be a long zag and zig days to come, a consolidation of hard bounce and a hard drop. It will be a day to day battle between participants, with the advantage going to those participants who has the guts to stay patient and watch the move like a hawk to their advantage.
As for the Gold, that's the hardest part to make a view from the technical side, it's way too low from the ema's/ma's. I guess it might take a long time to get back from the three consecutive days of 'hard' setback. Three days of hard drop is going to take a while to recover, no idea what Gold will do from this scenario. Will take it day by day, let's just wait and watch how the HFT's miraculous ('maneuveristic') approach might/will do.
As for the Crude, it will be a long zag and zig days to come, a consolidation of hard bounce and a hard drop. It will be a day to day battle between participants, with the advantage going to those participants who has the guts to stay patient and watch the move like a hawk to their advantage.
Friday, March 21, 2014
Selling Spree
The market went on to a selling spree today, Friday, a profit taking day. Nasdaq was the leading sellers in today's market. Learned that biotech was the culprit that led traders/investors sold their position(s). Chart below was from the Nasdaq (NQ), it formed an 'h' pattern, a sell short signal.
Looking Back!
Was scanning my humble blog the first time I reformat (though I've created other blog(s) before this one, I guess almost 20 of them?) in 2010, I guess I improved dramatically in my trading. This is the process of learning, it takes time and lots of patience with it. Learning even in any endeavor takes time, perseverance, commitment, and of course your passion and the love of what you do no matter what.
As I was looking at the chart below and the time I started to get involved in the market, I can see that I was at the right time and at the right place to participate with it. I experienced the hardest part of it, the crash, the flash crash, the bulls and the bears, and of course the uncertainty. That's the beauty of being part with the market, you learned the ups and downs, and whenever/whatever that comes with it, it is already normal in seeing what the market is doing on a daily basis, no more surprises. That's how the market is, it fluctuates, if it doesn't, the market is 'dead'.
Counting the years of my participation, I guess I am on the way of riding with it. From Malcom Gladwell's book (Outliers?), and from other studies, in any endeavor or to master a craft, it takes 10,000 hours of actual practice to master it (your craft). Based from my counting, I already exceeded that 10,000 hours (7.5 years from my counting) of actual participation or learning the market.
That's just came to my thoughts today as I look back!
As I was looking at the chart below and the time I started to get involved in the market, I can see that I was at the right time and at the right place to participate with it. I experienced the hardest part of it, the crash, the flash crash, the bulls and the bears, and of course the uncertainty. That's the beauty of being part with the market, you learned the ups and downs, and whenever/whatever that comes with it, it is already normal in seeing what the market is doing on a daily basis, no more surprises. That's how the market is, it fluctuates, if it doesn't, the market is 'dead'.
Counting the years of my participation, I guess I am on the way of riding with it. From Malcom Gladwell's book (Outliers?), and from other studies, in any endeavor or to master a craft, it takes 10,000 hours of actual practice to master it (your craft). Based from my counting, I already exceeded that 10,000 hours (7.5 years from my counting) of actual participation or learning the market.
That's just came to my thoughts today as I look back!
Thursday, March 20, 2014
Gold's Bullish Signal (again?)?
Showing in here a one hour chart from Gold that this humble market participant 'observed' that it might turn bullish because of that 'inverted head and shoulder' pattern (is emerging?). As far as this market observer is concern, it is forming that way. Though it might stall by tomorrow because it's Friday, a profit taking day, but there is a big chance come next week or maybe late Friday before market close it might starts to roll. Let's see, nobody knows, but you know market is unpredictable, it might go anywhere.
ES Bull Flag Setup
ES made a nice run again because of the positive jobless report and the existing home sales?, if you missed the consolidation from the triangle formation, you can still put on a trade when it pulled back from the bull flag pattern...
Wednesday, March 19, 2014
Possible Rally For The ES and the Crude?
Shown are the 1-hr chart from the ES and the Crude ahead of the FOMC meeting, I guess a possible rally might emerge after the meeting...the charts area forming a cup with a handle pattern, a bullish signal...
Tuesday, March 18, 2014
Friday, March 14, 2014
Crude Trade Setup
Entry: 9827
Stop: 9816
Target: 9877
Gain: 50 points
Note: Traded Crude in the Globex session and was able to capture the 'meat'...if you are patient, stay sittin' and keep watching the market like a hawk you can make a 'difference', as that famous trading words...'I make my money by sitting'?...
Stop: 9816
Target: 9877
Gain: 50 points
Note: Traded Crude in the Globex session and was able to capture the 'meat'...if you are patient, stay sittin' and keep watching the market like a hawk you can make a 'difference', as that famous trading words...'I make my money by sitting'?...
Thursday, March 13, 2014
Tuesday, March 11, 2014
Sunday, March 9, 2014
Tip Alert: Stock For The Long Run
I am showing here my Stock(s) For The Long Run, an idea taken from Prof. Jeremy Siegel's famous book. I have a small position from this shipping company and will consider it as a long term. I am planning to buy some more, maybe for a year or as long as it still a 'buy' price will do so, I am not that a big time investor, I will just buy whatever amount I can have monthly, and will go from there. I have a big belief from this Greek company that it has promising potential to regain its previous high price of $120, or maybe a possible takeover. Below is the monthly and weekly chart, see (research) for yourself if it has a promising outcome...
Thursday, March 6, 2014
Is Trading 'Easy'?
That can be answered depends how you interpret the market based from your own participation. I made this kind of question to my own trading because I do my own trading by myself without the aid of anyone except through my own way of learning. I am not saying/boasting or tooting my horn, it's because I don't have any means to pay expensive seminars, subscribe to expensive tutors or whatever those 'great' traders are espousing that they can beat the market, or those promises that they know how to make a good trade and help you make tons or millions of 'In God We Trust' paper.
That's pure nonsense as far as this humble market observer is concern, though I can't show any kind of that tons of green paper, but based from my own humbling way of participating in the market, when it comes to making trades, trading can be done by you alone, it cannot be done for you, that's for sure. Trading is within you!
So is trading is easy? No it's not, but is 'simple'! With that, you can answer that when you are in the market losing for long, as this market observer can point out. Trading can be done based from your own market observation, reading the minds of the market...as that famous quote from the market speculators always emphasized. It's about understanding the whole market structure, it's about your own way of interpreting how you can participate based from your own way of learning, it is not about how other people's (traders) way of trading - it is about your own way.
It is not how 'sophisticated' you are, I mean those indicators, it is not about how you fill your chart with lots of indicators which 'most' don't understand - only the one who invented it can understand, or if they can/do (I mean the inventor itself), I'm sure they don't use it either (sorry folks). It is not about that vwap...profiling... fibs...tick...rsi...or whatever...those are all for sophistication, the more you 'sophisticate' your trading, the more you make it hard to make a trade, is that not 'common sense'?
So make a trade based from your own way, don't trade other trader's way, because at the end of the day, when the market opens, everybody are scrambling to make green bucks. The best way is to collate great trading ideas, mold them into your own, implement it the way you understand it based from your own way of understanding how the market works, the big question there is 'how the market works', that will be your problem to solve, that will take a long time to 'dig' your 'bonehead'.
Based from my years of losing, desperation, frustration, name (I mean the hardship in the market) it I experienced it, trading the market is simple...but it's NOT THAT EASY!
That's pure nonsense as far as this humble market observer is concern, though I can't show any kind of that tons of green paper, but based from my own humbling way of participating in the market, when it comes to making trades, trading can be done by you alone, it cannot be done for you, that's for sure. Trading is within you!
So is trading is easy? No it's not, but is 'simple'! With that, you can answer that when you are in the market losing for long, as this market observer can point out. Trading can be done based from your own market observation, reading the minds of the market...as that famous quote from the market speculators always emphasized. It's about understanding the whole market structure, it's about your own way of interpreting how you can participate based from your own way of learning, it is not about how other people's (traders) way of trading - it is about your own way.
It is not how 'sophisticated' you are, I mean those indicators, it is not about how you fill your chart with lots of indicators which 'most' don't understand - only the one who invented it can understand, or if they can/do (I mean the inventor itself), I'm sure they don't use it either (sorry folks). It is not about that vwap...profiling... fibs...tick...rsi...or whatever...those are all for sophistication, the more you 'sophisticate' your trading, the more you make it hard to make a trade, is that not 'common sense'?
So make a trade based from your own way, don't trade other trader's way, because at the end of the day, when the market opens, everybody are scrambling to make green bucks. The best way is to collate great trading ideas, mold them into your own, implement it the way you understand it based from your own way of understanding how the market works, the big question there is 'how the market works', that will be your problem to solve, that will take a long time to 'dig' your 'bonehead'.
Based from my years of losing, desperation, frustration, name (I mean the hardship in the market) it I experienced it, trading the market is simple...but it's NOT THAT EASY!
Gold's Triple Bottom
As a gold 'digger' trader, I find this formation from this 1 - hour chart as shown with the squared area a 'triple bottom'. Able to make a trade today when it is showing a positive traction from the price level of 1338. That triple bottom observation was the trigger point that today's gold is going to make a surge, and it proves...
Thursday, February 27, 2014
Tip Alert: Successful
Decided to exit the trade at the price level of 102.82, considered Long Trade on Crude successful...
Wednesday, February 26, 2014
Tip Alert: Long Crude
Entry: 102.39
Stop: 101.80
Target: 103.10
Time Frame: 30 minute
Note: Will hold till regular session, let's see if it's going to work...
Stop: 101.80
Target: 103.10
Time Frame: 30 minute
Note: Will hold till regular session, let's see if it's going to work...
Monday, February 24, 2014
What Is A Trading Plan?
Do you have one?
Below is a sample of a Trading Plan.
- Describe your trading strategy, identifying your preferred tools and signal generators ( i.e. half hour candle stick charts, Market Profile, 700 tick chart with ADX, etc.).
- My trading strategy is quite simple but it's not that easy, it is composed of my own way of trading the market based from my own understanding how the market works, with references to my readings of the whole market structure with the aid of few technical indicators, the ma/ema's, S/R levels, patterns, candle stick formations, through the useful means of multiple charts from my 6 - 22'' to 24'' monitors, in that way I can make a clearer view of analyzing/ finding exact location in putting trades. My tools in trading will help me a lot in identifying highly probable trades with positive outcome as much as possible. My trade location is to capture the 'in-between' portion of a trend, based from 5 to 15 minute chart frame.
- My risk reward per trade is based from the point of my entry, with stop 14 ticks below entry point, and a target of 19 to 21 ticks above entry point (the price of my entry will depend on the price leveling of the current state of a product to be traded, case to case basis, but this will be my main risk/reward ratio), this is for long trade, for short trade, it's the reverse.. If in case the market entry was not that convincing or not potentially giving/showing a positive/probable possibility based from my readings at that standpoint, i will exit and will wait for the right timing/next opportunity.
Below is a sample of a Trading Plan.
- What is your trading style? Please go into detail regarding your preferred market states and time frames for trades.
- My trading style is to capitalize on the market's current environment by means of exploring/finding the right location of participation in placing a trade with the highest probability outcome in a short time frame on a daily basis based from my own target profit, through the means of my own way of learning/trading the market via observation, recognizing the patterns, watching/analyzing the price movement through chart/bar formations, with regards to the market on-goings overseas, current market state/environment, calendar events, and also based from my own temperament and tolerance. Through this way, my own agenda and objective in involving with the market is well planned and organized. Included herein is my strict adherence to discipline, and with that, I will treat my trading as my day's job - at all times, and follow the rules and be a responsible 'employee'/ trader.
- Describe your trading strategy, identifying your preferred tools and signal generators ( i.e. half hour candle stick charts, Market Profile, 700 tick chart with ADX, etc.).
- My trading strategy is quite simple but it's not that easy, it is composed of my own way of trading the market based from my own understanding how the market works, with references to my readings of the whole market structure with the aid of few technical indicators, the ma/ema's, S/R levels, patterns, candle stick formations, through the useful means of multiple charts from my 6 - 22'' to 24'' monitors, in that way I can make a clearer view of analyzing/ finding exact location in putting trades. My tools in trading will help me a lot in identifying highly probable trades with positive outcome as much as possible. My trade location is to capture the 'in-between' portion of a trend, based from 5 to 15 minute chart frame.
- Explain your average risk/reward per trade, including both the average stop loss in ticks as well as the average profit target in ticks.
- My risk reward per trade is based from the point of my entry, with stop 14 ticks below entry point, and a target of 19 to 21 ticks above entry point (the price of my entry will depend on the price leveling of the current state of a product to be traded, case to case basis, but this will be my main risk/reward ratio), this is for long trade, for short trade, it's the reverse.. If in case the market entry was not that convincing or not potentially giving/showing a positive/probable possibility based from my readings at that standpoint, i will exit and will wait for the right timing/next opportunity.
Saturday, February 22, 2014
Next Level of Trading
As I am embarking to the next level of my trading endeavor, I might not regularly post here in my humble blog in the coming days, possibly months for I am going to the next level of my trading. I am going to trade futures markets for a 'funder' soon, and will consider that opportunity as my day's job.
Was successful enough to get hired as a futures trader after months of showing my trading performance and complied all the trading requirements that professionals do or trade, was lucky enough my own way of learning for years paid of.
I learned my trading by myself with no outside help, through resourcefulness I was able to reach this far, so I am looking forward to the next level of my trading endeavor.
Keep 'observing' to 'trade' the market...
Was successful enough to get hired as a futures trader after months of showing my trading performance and complied all the trading requirements that professionals do or trade, was lucky enough my own way of learning for years paid of.
I learned my trading by myself with no outside help, through resourcefulness I was able to reach this far, so I am looking forward to the next level of my trading endeavor.
Keep 'observing' to 'trade' the market...
Friday, February 21, 2014
7 Things You Need As A Trader
This is in no particular order, as they are ALL important.
1) Strategy – There are so many different strategies: value, growth, momentum, short selling, etc. Find one that fits your personality and do your best to master it. The fastest way to learn is to study success. In other words, find someone who is successful at the strategy you like, and then mimic them with your own style. Another key is to recognize when the market environment is not conducive to your strategy, and make the proper adjustments.
2) Confidence – If you don’t have confidence, you have very little chance of succeeding. This doesn’t just apply to trading, it applies to EVERYTHING in life (business, athletics, relationships, etc.). With regards to trading, you have to believe in what you are doing and not be afraid to make mistakes. The key is to learn from them, make adjustments, and constantly reevaluate your progress.
3) Product Focus – There are so many different trading vehicles: futures, commodities, currencies, stocks, bonds, options, etc. It’s ok to dabble in a few things at first, but eventually you need to find out what product works best for you, focus on it, and MASTER it. As they say, don’t be a “jack of all trades and master of none.”
4) Know Your Time Frame – You must find a time frame that fits your personality. If you are too nervous, maybe short-term trading isn’t for you. Everyone wants to make tons of money in the market really fast, but keep in mind that is not a healthy approach. Most people with this mindset tend to be “boom and bust” traders. They make a bunch of money and eventually blow up. If you are truly passionate about trading and hope to be in the game for a long time, I recommend focusing on a slow and steady approach.
5) Ability to make decisions – If you go to McDonald’s, stare at the menu for 10 minutes, and still can’t decide what to order…then you have NO shot as a trader. You HAVE to be able to make decisions. You can’t hesitate all the time and trade with fear. Who cares if you make a bad decision, just MAKE ONE!!! If you are wrong, you’ll learn from it and make a better decision the next time. As Tony Robbins says: “Good decisions come from experience, and experience comes from bad decisions.” The key is to stop trading with so many fears and MAKE a decision. Who knows? You might end up making the right choice, which will increase your confidence and enhance your ability to make sound decisions in the future.
6) Conviction – This is very similar to confidence, but what I’m referring to specifically is to have conviction in your ideas. It amazes me how many people will buy a stock just because someone on TV or Twitter mentions it. Don’t get me wrong, I love to listen to ideas, but it has to fit my strategy in order for me to buy it. Same thing applies when someone says something negative about a stock that you own. Don’t be so easily swayed or talked out of your positions. Have conviction and let the MARKET prove you right or wrong!
7) Ability to cut losses – I’ve studied the best traders in history and they all have the same number one rule: CUT YOUR LOSSES! As a trader, think of your cash as your inventory. If you can’t cut losses quickly, eventually they get bigger and bigger, and you’ll have no inventory left to work with. I have strong conviction in my ideas but when the MARKET proves me wrong, I let go of my ego, cut my loss, and move on.
Tuesday, February 4, 2014
Saturday, January 25, 2014
Overnight Gold 'Digging'
Gold was on the upswing the past few days and was able to make a decent trade Friday in the overnight (early) session. Entered at the 1260 area (lower arrow) and exited at the upper arrow because of that 'dangerous' bar (is that a gravestone? or what?, whatever, but that's not a good sign bar). Also was closely paying attention with the levels (S/R), and the way it pulls back (rectangular area), and the % retracement, the ema/ma's formation, in that way I can have an idea how to formed my 'triangle' trade, that's my 'patented' trade idea. My 'patented' triangle trade idea just came through my years of observation in trading the market (or through 'losing' in the market, if I may say, because in trading you learned by losing, isn't it?), so through my engineering ingenuity, and through my own experimentation, I find my 'patented' triangle trade works...below is just one of the example...
Tuesday, January 21, 2014
Crude's 'Irrationalistiscm'...
Crude was also on the watch list of this trade observer, but this 15 minute chart from Crude in today's market is one example of market's 'irrationalistiscm'. I place a trade within the pointed arrow and put a stop price within the 50% retracement from the green long bar (horizontal arrow), but got stopped out. It drops so hard and got hit hard (like a falling knife). My mistake is putting a late trade, I could have place an overnight trade (which I usually do), but this one is a product of my own irrationalistic behavior/action from the irrationalistic market behavior, it so happen I acted at the wrong time at the wrong side of the market.
Sunday, January 19, 2014
Tip Alert: Long Gold
Entry: 1255
Stop: 1251
Target: 1262
Note: First alert for 2014 trades. Holiday by tomorrow, but putting a long entry at 1255, let's see how it goes.
Stop: 1251
Target: 1262
Note: First alert for 2014 trades. Holiday by tomorrow, but putting a long entry at 1255, let's see how it goes.
Tuesday, December 24, 2013
Nine Surprising Things Jesse Livermore Said
- Joshua M Brown
- December 24th, 2013
The most storied and important trader who ever lived, Jesse Livermore, would be tuning these daily buy and sell calls out were he alive and operating today. Because while he was a trader, he was not of the mindset that there was always some kind of action to be taking.
Jesse Livermore’s legacy is a bit of a double-edged sword…
On the one hand, he was the first to codify the ancient language of supply and demand that is every bit as relevant 100 years later as it was when he first relayed it to biographer Edwin Lefèvre.
Livermore himself sums it up thusly: “I learned early that there is nothing new in Wall Street. There can’t be because speculation is as old as the hills. Whatever happens in the stock market today has happened before and will happen again. I’ve never forgotten that.”
On the other hand, Livermore’s undoing came at precisely the moments in which he ignored his own advice. After repeated admonitions about tipsters, for example, Jesse allowed a tip on cotton to lead to a massive loss which grew even larger as he sat on it – violating yet another of his own cardinal rules.
And of course, other than for a few moments of temporary triumph in the trading pits and bucket shops of the era, Jesse Livermore was not a happy man. “Things haven’t gone well with me,” he informed one of his many wives by handwritten note, before putting a bullet through his own head in the cloakroom of the Sherry-Netherland Hotel.
But he did leave behind a wealth of knowledge about the art of speculation. His exploits (and cautionary tales of woe) have educated, influenced and inspired every generation of trader since Reminiscences was first published in 1923.
In my opinion, some of the most useful bits of knowledge we get from the book concern Jesse’s discussion of timeframes and patience. Many traders, particularly rookies, approach the game with the idea that they’re supposed to be constantly doing something - in and out, with a trembling finger poised to click the mouse again and again. Consequently, they get on the treadmill of booking wins and losses without ever really moving the needle. They end up with tons of brokerage commissions and taxes to show for their efforts, but not much else.
Being a trader doesn’t mean one must always be executing a trade, just as being a house painter doesn’t mean that every surface needs an endless series of coats.
Many rookies are surprised to learn that Livermore, the idol of so
many great traders, advocated a lower maintenance, higher patience approach as he matured. In his early days, Livermore was dependent on the short-term funding and scalping activity of the bucket shops. Once he graduated and had his own capital, he was able to lengthen position holding times and could even afford to do nothing for extended periods.
Here are nine surprising things Jesse Livermore said regarding excessive trading:
1. “Money is made by sitting, not trading.”
2. “It takes time to make money.”
3. “It was never my thinking that made the big money for me, it always was sitting.”
4. “Nobody can catch all the fluctuations.”
5. “The desire for constant action irrespective of underlying conditions is responsible for many losses in Wall Street even among the professionals, who feel that they must take home some money everyday, as though they were working for regular wages.”
6. “Buy right, sit tight.”
7. “Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon.”
8. “Don’t give me timing, give me time.”
and finally, the most important thing:
9. “There is a time for all things, but I didn’t know it. And that is precisely what beats so many men in Wall Street who are very far from being in the main sucker class. There is the plain fool, who does the wrong thing at all times everywhere, but there is the Wall Street fool, who thinks he must trade all the time. Not many can always have adequate reasons for buying and selling stocks daily – or sufficient knowledge to make his play an intelligent play.”
Jesse was a trader but he knew the value of staying with positions and sometimes not trading at all. Once he began to follow tips from others or trade when he should have abstained, all of his progress had come undone, and with it, his sanity.
We are fortunate to be able to learn from his mistakes and to sidestep the errors that eventually cost him everything.
Sunday, December 22, 2013
2013 Trading
Much to narrate about trading for the year 2013 for this self-taught independent market observer and hard trying 'would be' trader, except that the market for this humble participant is really a shot in the air. But it's better to shoot in the air than shooting at something else, isn't it? Well, what that means, I mean participating in the market is really hard work, understanding yourself, have discipline at all times, and most of all be an 'observer'.
Be adaptable too, have your own understanding about the market, and be an independent thinker, ready to act on your own, not being influence by anybody. Though you can entertain other (lots) ideas regarding the market, but at the end of the day, when trading time, it's all yours, no one can help you in trading except yourself. Who else going to help you 'real time' to make you money? Nobody!
In (my) trading, you need to have your own idea to participate, that's what I learned and what I do believe. Make your own way of trading to say the least. For the coming 2014, we hope we can have a better way of participating in the market, and I wish all fellow traders a very fruitful trading this coming 2014...
Be adaptable too, have your own understanding about the market, and be an independent thinker, ready to act on your own, not being influence by anybody. Though you can entertain other (lots) ideas regarding the market, but at the end of the day, when trading time, it's all yours, no one can help you in trading except yourself. Who else going to help you 'real time' to make you money? Nobody!
In (my) trading, you need to have your own idea to participate, that's what I learned and what I do believe. Make your own way of trading to say the least. For the coming 2014, we hope we can have a better way of participating in the market, and I wish all fellow traders a very fruitful trading this coming 2014...
Wednesday, December 18, 2013
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