Tip Alert: Successful

Decided to exit the trade at the price level of 102.82, considered Long Trade on Crude successful...

Tip Alert: Long Crude

Entry: 102.39
Stop: 101.80
Target: 103.10
Time Frame: 30 minute
Note: Will hold till regular session, let's see if it's going to work...

What Is A Trading Plan?

Do you have one?

Below is a sample of a Trading Plan.

- What is your trading style? Please go into detail regarding your preferred market states and time frames for trades.

- My trading style is to capitalize on the market's current environment by means of exploring/finding the right location of participation in placing a trade with the highest probability outcome in a short time frame on a daily basis based from my own target profit, through the means of my own way of learning/trading the market via observation, recognizing the patterns, watching/analyzing the price movement through chart/bar formations, with regards to the market on-goings overseas, current market state/environment, calendar events, and also based from my own temperament and tolerance. Through this way, my own agenda and objective in involving with the market is well planned and organized. Included herein is my strict adherence to discipline, and with that, I will treat my trading as my day's job - at all times, and follow the rules and be a responsible 'employee'/ trader.

- Describe your trading strategy, identifying your preferred tools and signal generators ( i.e. half hour candle stick charts, Market Profile, 700 tick chart with ADX, etc.).

- My trading strategy is quite simple but it's not that easy, it is composed of my own way of trading the market based from my own understanding how the market works, with references to my readings of the whole market structure with the aid of few technical indicators, the ma/ema's, S/R levels, patterns, candle stick formations, through the useful means of multiple charts from my 6 - 22'' to 24'' monitors, in that way I can make a clearer view of analyzing/ finding exact location in putting trades. My tools in trading will help me a lot in identifying highly probable trades with positive outcome as much as possible. My trade location is to capture the 'in-between' portion of a trend, based from 5 to 15 minute chart frame.
 

- Explain your average risk/reward per trade, including both the average stop loss in ticks as well as the average profit target in ticks.

- My risk reward per trade is based from the point of my entry, with stop 14 ticks below entry point, and a target of 19 to 21 ticks above entry point (the price of my entry will depend on the price leveling of the current state of a product to be traded, case to case basis, but this will be my main risk/reward ratio), this is for long trade, for short trade, it's the reverse.. If in case the market entry was not that convincing or not potentially giving/showing a positive/probable possibility based from my readings at that standpoint, i will exit and will wait for the right timing/next opportunity.

Next Level of Trading

As I am embarking to the next level of my trading endeavor, I might not regularly post here in my humble blog in the coming days, possibly months for I am going to the next level of my trading. I am going to trade futures markets for a 'funder' soon, and will consider that opportunity as my day's job.

Was successful enough to get hired as a futures trader after months of showing my trading performance and complied all the trading requirements that professionals do or trade, was lucky enough my own way of learning for years paid of.

I learned my trading by myself with no outside help, through resourcefulness I was able to reach this far, so I am looking forward to the next level of my trading endeavor.

Keep 'observing' to 'trade' the market...

7 Things You Need As A Trader

Posted by Joe Fahmy

on February 20th, 2014

This is in no particular order, as they are ALL important.

1) Strategy – There are so many different strategies: value, growth, momentum, short selling, etc. Find one that fits your personality and do your best to master it. The fastest way to learn is to study success. In other words, find someone who is successful at the strategy you like, and then mimic them with your own style. Another key is to recognize when the market environment is not conducive to your strategy, and make the proper adjustments.

2) Confidence – If you don’t have confidence, you have very little chance of succeeding. This doesn’t just apply to trading, it applies to EVERYTHING in life (business, athletics, relationships, etc.). With regards to trading, you have to believe in what you are doing and not be afraid to make mistakes. The key is to learn from them, make adjustments, and constantly reevaluate your progress.

3) Product Focus – There are so many different trading vehicles: futures, commodities, currencies, stocks, bonds, options, etc. It’s ok to dabble in a few things at first, but eventually you need to find out what product works best for you, focus on it, and MASTER it. As they say, don’t be a “jack of all trades and master of none.”

4) Know Your Time Frame – You must find a time frame that fits your personality. If you are too nervous, maybe short-term trading isn’t for you. Everyone wants to make tons of money in the market really fast, but keep in mind that is not a healthy approach. Most people with this mindset tend to be “boom and bust” traders. They make a bunch of money and eventually blow up. If you are truly passionate about trading and hope to be in the game for a long time, I recommend focusing on a slow and steady approach.

5) Ability to make decisions – If you go to McDonald’s, stare at the menu for 10 minutes, and still can’t decide what to order…then you have NO shot as a trader. You HAVE to be able to make decisions. You can’t hesitate all the time and trade with fear. Who cares if you make a bad decision, just MAKE ONE!!! If you are wrong, you’ll learn from it and make a better decision the next time. As Tony Robbins says: “Good decisions come from experience, and experience comes from bad decisions.” The key is to stop trading with so many fears and MAKE a decision. Who knows? You might end up making the right choice, which will increase your confidence and enhance your ability to make sound decisions in the future.

6) Conviction – This is very similar to confidence, but what I’m referring to specifically is to have conviction in your ideas. It amazes me how many people will buy a stock just because someone on TV or Twitter mentions it. Don’t get me wrong, I love to listen to ideas, but it has to fit my strategy in order for me to buy it. Same thing applies when someone says something negative about a stock that you own. Don’t be so easily swayed or talked out of your positions. Have conviction and let the MARKET prove you right or wrong!

7) Ability to cut losses – I’ve studied the best traders in history and they all have the same number one rule: CUT YOUR LOSSES! As a trader, think of your cash as your inventory. If you can’t cut losses quickly, eventually they get bigger and bigger, and you’ll have no inventory left to work with. I have strong conviction in my ideas but when the MARKET proves me wrong, I let go of my ego, cut my loss, and move on.

Tip Alert: Long Gold

Entry: 1258
Stop: 1254
Target: 1266
Note: Let's see if it's going to work

Overnight Gold 'Digging'

Gold was on the upswing the past few days and was able to make a decent trade Friday in the overnight (early) session. Entered at the 1260 area (lower arrow) and exited at the upper arrow because of that 'dangerous' bar (is that a gravestone? or what?, whatever, but that's not a good sign bar). Also was closely paying attention with the levels (S/R), and the way it pulls back (rectangular area), and the % retracement, the ema/ma's formation, in that way I can have an idea how to formed my 'triangle' trade, that's my 'patented' trade idea. My 'patented' triangle trade idea just came through my years of observation in trading the market (or through 'losing' in the market, if I may say, because in trading you learned by losing, isn't it?), so through my engineering ingenuity, and through my own experimentation, I find my 'patented' triangle trade works...below is just one of the example...

Crude's 'Irrationalistiscm'...

Crude was also on the watch list of this trade observer, but this 15 minute chart from Crude in today's market is one example of market's 'irrationalistiscm'. I place a trade within the pointed arrow and put a stop price within the 50% retracement from the green long bar (horizontal arrow), but got stopped out. It drops so hard and got hit hard (like a falling knife). My mistake is putting a late trade, I could have place an overnight trade (which I usually do), but this one is a product of my own irrationalistic behavior/action from the irrationalistic market behavior, it so happen I acted at the wrong time at the wrong side of the market.

Tip Alert: Stopped Out

Long trade entry got stopped out.

Tip Alert: Long Gold

Entry: 1255
Stop: 1251
Target: 1262
Note: First alert for 2014 trades. Holiday by tomorrow, but putting a long entry at 1255, let's see how it goes.

Nine Surprising Things Jesse Livermore Said

• Joshua M Brown
• December 24th, 2013

There are those who would convince you that it is somehow smart or in your best interest to be manically switching your investments around, back and forth, long and short, on a daily basis. To pay attention to this kind of overstimulation is the height of madness, even for professional traders.

The most storied and important trader who ever lived, Jesse Livermore, would be tuning these daily buy and sell calls out were he alive and operating today. Because while he was a trader, he was not of the mindset that there was always some kind of action to be taking.

Jesse Livermore’s legacy is a bit of a double-edged sword…

On the one hand, he was the first to codify the ancient language of supply and demand that is every bit as relevant 100 years later as it was when he first relayed it to biographer Edwin Lefèvre.

Livermore himself sums it up thusly: “I learned early that there is nothing new in Wall Street. There can’t be because speculation is as old as the hills. Whatever happens in the stock market today has happened before and will happen again. I’ve never forgotten that.”

On the other hand, Livermore’s undoing came at precisely the moments in which he ignored his own advice. After repeated admonitions about tipsters, for example, Jesse allowed a tip on cotton to lead to a massive loss which grew even larger as he sat on it – violating yet another of his own cardinal rules.

And of course, other than for a few moments of temporary triumph in the trading pits and bucket shops of the era, Jesse Livermore was not a happy man. “Things haven’t gone well with me,” he informed one of his many wives by handwritten note, before putting a bullet through his own head in the cloakroom of the Sherry-Netherland Hotel.

But he did leave behind a wealth of knowledge about the art of speculation. His exploits (and cautionary tales of woe) have educated, influenced and inspired every generation of trader since Reminiscences was first published in 1923.

In my opinion, some of the most useful bits of knowledge we get from the book concern Jesse’s discussion of timeframes and patience. Many traders, particularly rookies, approach the game with the idea that they’re supposed to be constantly doing something - in and out, with a trembling finger poised to click the mouse again and again.  Consequently, they get on the treadmill of booking wins and losses without ever really moving the needle. They end up with tons of brokerage commissions and taxes to show for their efforts, but not much else.

Being a trader doesn’t mean one must always be executing a trade, just as being a house painter doesn’t mean that every surface needs an endless series of coats.

Many rookies are surprised to learn that Livermore, the idol of so
many great traders, advocated a lower maintenance, higher patience approach as he matured. In his early days, Livermore was dependent on the short-term funding and scalping activity of the bucket shops. Once he graduated and had his own capital, he was able to lengthen position holding times and could even afford to do nothing for extended periods.

Here are nine surprising things Jesse Livermore said regarding excessive trading:

1. “Money is made by sitting, not trading.”

2. “It takes time to make money.”

3. “It was never my thinking that made the big money for me, it always was sitting.”

4. “Nobody can catch all the fluctuations.”

5. “The desire for constant action irrespective of underlying conditions is responsible for many losses in Wall Street even among the professionals, who feel that they must take home some money everyday, as though they were working for regular wages.”

6. “Buy right, sit tight.”

7. “Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon.”

8. “Don’t give me timing, give me time.”
and finally, the most important thing:

9. “There is a time for all things, but I didn’t know it. And that is precisely what beats so many men in Wall Street who are very far from being in the main sucker class. There is the plain fool, who does the wrong thing at all times everywhere, but there is the Wall Street fool, who thinks he must trade all the time. Not many can always have adequate reasons for buying and selling stocks daily – or sufficient knowledge to make his play an intelligent play.”

Jesse was a trader but he knew the value of staying with positions and sometimes not trading at all. Once he began to follow tips from others or trade when he should have abstained, all of his progress had come undone, and with it, his sanity.

We are fortunate to be able to learn from his mistakes and to sidestep the errors that eventually cost him everything.

2013 Trading

Much to narrate about trading for the year 2013 for this self-taught independent market observer and hard trying 'would be' trader, except that the market for this humble participant is really a shot in the air. But it's better to shoot in the air than shooting at something else, isn't it? Well, what that means, I mean participating in the market is really hard work, understanding yourself, have discipline at all times, and most of all be an 'observer'.

Be adaptable too, have your own understanding about the market, and be an independent thinker, ready to act on your own, not being influence by anybody. Though you can entertain other (lots) ideas regarding the market, but at the end of the day, when trading time, it's all yours, no one can help you in trading except yourself. Who else going to help you 'real time' to make you money? Nobody!

In (my) trading, you need to have your own idea to participate, that's what I learned and what I do believe. Make your own way of trading to say the least. For the coming 2014, we hope we can have a better way of participating in the market, and I wish all fellow traders a very fruitful trading this coming 2014...

Tip Alert: Successful

Exited at 1242...

Tip Alert: Long Gold

Entry: 1234
Stop: 1228
Target: 1240

Tip Alert: Stopped Out

Experimented to trade ES and got stopped out...

Tip Alert: ES Long

Entry: 1781
Stop: 1776
Target: 1788

Tip Alert: Successful

Tip Alert: Long Gold

Entry: 1235
Stop: 1229
Target: 1244

Do It For The Pure Love of the Game

by: Bill Zimmer Friday, December 13th, 2013 at 10:04 am

A speculator is a man who observes the future, and acts before it occurs. Bernard Baruch

Why do you trade? What motivates you? To most traders, the answer is obvious, isn’t it? We trade to make money. Many traders, however, say that they would trade even if they merely earned just a little. Some interviewed in “Market Wizards” by Jack Schwagger, said that they initially took any job in the financial markets just to be around the action. Money wasn’t the only motivator. Trading provides its own rewards.

One seasoned trader, for example, said he would trade even if he didn’t earn much money at it. He said, “I’d probably still do it. It’s so interesting. I think it’s a lot better than punching a clock somewhere. I find the game itself interesting. I enjoy watching how stocks react to news. It’s always amazing to me how you can see small movements snowball into large herd mentality sorts of movements. A minor piece of news starts some selling, and then all of a sudden, there’s more selling and more selling, and then there’s a huge avalanche of selling. And it all started with just a minor piece of news. But then at other times, it won’t do that. I find that very interesting.”

Another seasoned trader says, “I like the freedom trading gives you, the ability to earn a living while not having to have employees, the mental challenge, and the constantly changing environment.” There are many reasons to pursue trading, and money is usually not the only reason. Many profitable traders truly enjoy trading; they have a passion for understanding and mastering the markets.

In systematic studies, psychologists have repeatedly discovered that peak performers have a true passion for what they do. Whether it’s art, sports, or business, the folks at the top are not primarily motivated by fame, glory, respect, or status. They are driven by the pure love of the game. Winning traders, similarly, have strong interests in the markets, and this passion is the driving force that puts them at the top, year after year. But many novice traders are drawn to the markets to meet deep-seated psychological deficits and needs. They yearn for respect and status. They hope that by earning huge profits, they will be able to solve all life’s problems. Trading to satisfy these motives will most often lead to disappointment. For long-turn survival it’s very important to be motivated by more than the money.

Trading should be viewed as fun and challenging. You should do it because you love it. If you can, you’ll find you can trade more creatively, effortlessly, and profitably. What motivates your trading? Do you see it as a challenge? Is it fun? Is it enjoyable? Be motivated by the intellectual challenge. Follow your passion for trading. Do it because you love it.

Tip Alert: Stopped Out

Long trade on Gold fails and got stopped out...it drops hard...

Tip Alert Update

30 minute chart of long Gold trade, still holding its breath, let's see if it can sustain...

Tip Alert Update

Trade still on...though the retracement based from my entry price is already more than 50%, I'm still keeping the entry trade...

Tip Alert Update

So far doing great, let's see...

Tip Alert: Long Gold

Entry: 1257
Stop: 1249
Target: 1269
Note: Now I've got an idea, the 1-hr chart below is forming cup with a handle from my observation, let's see if it's going to work.

Tip Alert: No Idea

I guess I'm passing off for now, with the 1-hr chart below, no idea what the Gold market will do from here, except that it might pause and do some zigzagging. Just make your own conclusion and trade at your own way/risk, but the way I look at, it might go the same way from where it burst from the previous (the first area), I don't know but that's my observation.

 

Tip Alert: Missed Opportunity

Not able to monitor the market early and was late to place/make a trade. Better luck next time. It could have been a nice profit...

Tip Alert 120913: Successful

Target:1236

Tip Alert 120913: Long Gold

Entry: 1230
Stop: 1224
Target: 1236
Addendum: Possible maximum target: 1238

Tip Alert Result: Successful

Shown is the 5-minute chart from Gold where the Tip Alert materializes...

Tip Alert: Long Gold

Entry: 12475
Stop: 12440
Target: 12505

Trading Market Update

While participating in the market the past two weeks and not having good result, this humble participant observed the whole market especially the indices continues their ascendancy. While the crude and the gold are in the downward trend but moves in a zigzag mode. There are opportunities from all the market concerned except that you just have to 'timed' your participation. We need some kind of regrouping on our part and examine the strategies, find the right one based from current environment. As market participant, one needs to be adaptable in order to have a good result.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Tip Alert Result: Stopped Out

Overnight long trade did not worked out, got stopped out, anticipating breakout reversal still far fetched...

Tip Alert: Gold Overnight Long

Entry: 12411
Stop: 12374
Target: 12500
Note: Trying to trade for a reversal, let's see if it's going to work in favor...just taking a risk for a possible breakout, with that 'box' per observation...

OBSERVE & TRADE: TIP ALERT SERVICE (GOLD FUTURES)

Introducing from this humble Market Observer a different kind of (very unique) Trade Alert Service that will help traders, especially the new ones - and the market instrument is exclusive only for Gold Futures market.

This  is a very unique kind of service that will help Gold traders add input/idea to make/place/put a trade. Very simple, not much indicators, no level price (S/R) determination - to avoid confusion, all purely 'pattern' observation, but with adherence to strict discipline. That means, NO 'EDGE' OBSERVATION, NO ACTION (NO EDGE, NO TRADE: TO AVOID OVERTRADING, COMMISSION COSTS, AND OF COURSE, NO LOSS).

 

So how this going to work, very easy and simple. I will provide my own simple way of observing the Gold market the way I trade and will update/post here (right on time): right here on this blog itself, no log-in, no password, no other site to 'click', no gimmick, no signing up, no blah...blah...blah...PURELY TIP ALERT... AT NO COST... REPEAT AT NO COST... BUT... THERE IS A BIG BUT... WHAT IS THAT?

WELL, THE ONLY CONDITION IS THIS, IF THE TIP ALERT SERVICE MATERIALIZES, YOU JUST DONATE A DOLLAR ($1.00) FROM THE DONATE BUTTON RIGHT BELOW ON THIS BLOG, YES, JUST A DOLLAR! IF IT DID NOT MATERIALIZE, NO NEED TO DONATE, KEEP YOUR DOLLAR. AND IT'S UP TO YOU TO DONATE OR NOT, EVEN IF IT MATERIALIZES, I DON'T MIND, THAT'S FINE!

BUT IT DOESN'T MEAN YOU HAVE TO FOLLOW EXACTLY THE TIP ALERT AS IT IS, YOU HAVE THE DISCRETION TO DECIDE, BUT THE TIP ALERT I AM GOING TO POST IS MY REAL TRADE, IT'S UP TO TRADERS TO FOLLOW.

 

THIS IS JUST FOR HONEST TO GOODNESS KIND OF SHARING IDEAS AND KNOWLEDGE SERVICE!

SO LET'S TRADE ON!

Tip Alert Result: Flat

Overnight Gold trade resulted just in flat...

Tip Alert Update

Trade still in the works...

Tip Alert: Gold Overnight Long

Entry: 12432
Stop: 12398
Target: 12525 (will monitor as the session is on-going)
Note: Trying to get long even though the trend is down, but considering the drop already on its fourth consecutive session, I am looking for a reversal, let's see how it goes. In trading nothing is predictable, it's all about probability, and you have to take risk, and this is one example of the risk, but of course with control.

Tip Alert Result: Fails, got stopped

Trade did not worked as planned, got stopped at 1242, just gain 1 point, avoided a loss...

Tip Alert Update

Almost got stopped out, trade is recovering, possible target to 1248...

Tip Alert Update

Will keep the trade as it is, seems it is forming cup with a handle...

Tip Alert Update

Move stop to 1242...(at least to avoid loss)...let's see...analyzing to exit...

Tip Alert Update: Gold Long Setup - Developing

Tip Alert: Gold Long Setup

5-min chart; short time frame
Entry: 1241
Target:1247
Stop: 1237

Tip Alert Result: Stopped Out

This time the Tip Alert experiment for overnight long trade fails, got stopped out. The long awaited breakout for a long move did not worked in our favor and the long consolidation drops hard, it went to the other side. Well that proves that setting stop is really a must to avoid a big loss. We'll take a break for a while.

The idea of introducing a Tip Alert Service was just a snap of a self instant creation. I have a great idea of sharing thoughts through my own market observation, brought about my years of participation in the market and it's just one of those times that sometimes you have to look back and think...hey, why not share something what have you learned? So I just experimented something and my post about Tip Alert just came in a snap, and it's not pre-planned, and that's a good feeling being a market participant for quite a while. And it's a good education too, a continuous learning, and I think and I feel it's a sign of growth and advancement especially this Market Observer is a product of SEU - Self Education University.  

Tip Alert: Overnight Long

Trading the Gold in the overnight (Globex) session. The chart below is on 30-minute frame. Let's see how it works in tonight session

Entry: 12745
Stop: 12719
Target: 12780 (but will monitor as the market in session)

Tip Alert Result: No loss

Tip Alert experiment did not work, no loss, flat. The Gold market stay as it is. Shown is the 15-minute chart. Nothing happens. Anyway, that's how in trading, if the market did not go the way we are trading, that's fine, just make sure, we did not lose. Let's wait the next trading day.

NOTE: Always tune in to my Tip Alert, it will always pop up here, 24/7.

OBSERVE & TRADE: TIP ALERT SERVICE (GOLD FUTURES)

OBSERVE & TRADE: TIP ALERT SERVICE (GOLD FUTURES)

Introducing from this humble Market Observer a different kind of (very unique) Trade Alert Service that will help traders, especially the new ones - and the market instrument is exclusive only for Gold Futures market.

This is a very unique kind of service that will help Gold traders add input/idea to make/place/put a trade. Very simple, not much indicators, no level price (S/R) determination - to avoid confusion, all purely 'pattern' observation, but with adherence to strict discipline. That means, NO 'EDGE' OBSERVATION, NO ACTION (NO EDGE, NO TRADE: TO AVOID OVERTRADING, COMMISSION COSTS, AND OF COURSE, NO LOSS).

So how this going to work, very easy and simple. I will provide my own simple way of observing the Gold market the way I trade and will update/post here (right on time): right here on this blog itself, no log-in, no password, no other site to 'click', no gimmick, no signing up, no blah...blah...blah...PURELY TIP ALERT... AT NO COST... REPEAT AT NO COST... BUT... THERE IS A BIG BUT... WHAT IS THAT?

WELL, THE ONLY CONDITION IS THIS, IF THE TIP ALERT SERVICE MATERIALIZES, YOU JUST DONATE A DOLLAR ($1.00) FROM THE DONATE BUTTON RIGHT BELOW ON THIS BLOG, YES, JUST A DOLLAR! IF IT DID NOT MATERIALIZE, NO NEED TO DONATE, KEEP YOUR DOLLAR. AND IT'S UP TO YOU TO DONATE OR NOT, EVEN IF IT MATERIALIZES, I DON'T MIND, THAT'S FINE!

BUT IT DOESN'T MEAN YOU HAVE TO FOLLOW EXACTLY THE TIP ALERT AS IT IS, YOU HAVE THE DISCRETION TO DECIDE, BUT THE TIP ALERT I AM GOING TO POST IS MY REAL TRADE, IT'S UP TO TRADERS TO FOLLOW.

THIS IS JUST FOR HONEST TO GOODNESS KIND OF SHARING IDEAS AND KNOWLEDGE SERVICE!

SO LET'S TRADE ON!

Tip Alert: Possible Long For Gold

Shown is the 15-minute chart of Gold, triangle formed, possible long.

Possible Entry: 1275
Target Exit: 1281
Stop: 1272
Note: Let see if it will work (experimenting for Tip Alert trade update)

Gold Short Trade Setup

Good timing to short the market today, for it's the first day of the week, participants are not that inclined to rally the market. Nice timing if you can enter short at the 'push-up' as shown from the upper red arrow and exit (cover) at the support (lower arrow).

Just for the info...

Though I have been involved in the market as a trader, it doesn't mean I don't believe in 'confounding interest', so just to show my investment philosophy in the long term, I am showing my small investment from this firm (as shown below), hoping I can share something.

Also, I might lessen my market participation in the coming months or so for I need to balance my involvement in the market for I sense that too much (or deep connection) participation is not that quite good on my part, so I am planning to accept a new challenge to my previous endeavor as an Electrical Engineer, I am inclined to accept an offer as a 'Quality Control Specialist' in a cable company here in Anaheim, California, it manufactures large quantity of low voltage cable that supplies globally. So it's a new challenge for me and I will give it a good shot. At least, I have some diversion from the market, I can balance myself.