MARKET'S YEAR ENDER

Shown are market's weekly year ender, S&P and Nasdaq were on the uptrend, Gold mostly sideways, while Crude drops hard. Let's see in the coming year how it goes.

 

 

 

OBSERVE & TRADE NEW SITE

Moved to a new site: http://puzzledtrading.blogspot.com/

Monday's Market 3/31

Observation and the Trade for Monday's Market

The market was so erratic for the past month and was on the verge of dropping hard but some participants are not that in one conviction, pulling each other's throat that turns the market on a zigzag mode. The daily chart (below) of the S&P shows a deep cup with a handle pattern but the handle is extending, which is showing a concern as far as this humble market observer 'crystalizes'. The bars (red) especially the bigger ones are very 'scary', they are on the verge of dropping hard at any moment. I guess the bears are anticipating shorting the market here, while the bulls are just making it safe by putting a hard 'stop' for protection. If that happens, expect a brief hard push upwards for a 'short squeeze' and then on the way to the bottom?

For the Gold, there is no sign of relief unless John Paulson will buy the market here, but that is a foregone observation. But no one knows, except that it is dropping slowly, like squeezing one's neck bit by bit until it loses its breath - that's scary. Just take the Gold day by day, and monitor the Chinese or the Indian's angst for Gold, they might buy the yellow metal in bulk, if that happens, trade in-between to capture the abrupt move in case.

As for the Crude, it is moving upwards, it still a good swing here, but most likely a very tight fight between participant's opposing views. The best trade is on a day to day basis, probably on a short time frame. Expect a hard drop and hard push upwards, but it depends on how participants behave, so watch for it. Unless some major on-goings overseas might happened, especially of that in the Eastern Europe?, so be very vigilant out there traders.

Check the Calendar Events below for guidance.

http://mam.econoday.com/byweek.asp?day=31&month=3&year=2014&cust=mam&lid=0

Friday's Market

Though today's market, Friday, supposed to be a profit taking day, but the ES made a surprise move, it surge vertically in the open that caught some participants off guard and were left out, or what they call a short 'squeeze'?

The Gold continues its downward projection that there is no sign of relief, I guess its 'melting' will last to the last ounce, not a good sign.

As for the Crude, it is surging slowly, lots of motorist are still filling their old SUV with premium gasoline, Elon Musk should lower the cost of his Tesla cars to prevent the surging cost of the Crude I guess.

 

 

Trading By Myself

Just to summarize my Crude trade that I had shown in real time (though delayed a bit, but if you are alert even though you're a little bit late in seeing my alert, you can still gain from my humble tip(s)) about my  'Tip Alert' post, I am just going to show here or prove that I can make a trade based from my own learning through technical observation without employing 'sophistication'.

As you can see from  my alert, I've shown a 1-hr chart with a box showing the hard bounce and the hard drop in succession, four days of bouncing from the s/r level (you just have to figure that out for you to learn, I am doing this for educational too). I am just making my own interpretation from this box as a 'Darvas' ( I just don't know if that's what really is, I don't care but that's how I do my own observation, that's why my blog is about that).

So from this observation, if you are (only) observant in the market (and was reading the 'minds of the market'), you know the market is an exercise of human behavior, so you have to learn more about psychology in this case. With this kind of pattern, the most probable outcome is for the market to move up. Why did I came up with that? Simple, have you seen the 'rapid' move upwards on the left side (the one that I cover (half of it) when I drew the rectangular box. That's my basis that it is going to make a move.

Also, from the 5-hr chart, the pattern is a 'saucer pan'?, or a shallow cup with a handle pattern ( we need to familiarize ourselves with the different market patterns, that's important), signaling a bullish move is in the works.

Also from the daily chart below, the big bullish bar is a sign that there is a follow through.



That's the basis of making that trade through my own observation, that's what I call 'looking at the whole market structure'.

See, Crude is still cruising as of this posting...

Crude's Tip Alert Successful

That's enough for 75 points gain, Crude's Tip Alert Successful...

Crude's Tip Alert Update

It is really moving upwards...

Crude's Tip Alert

Now Crude is on the verge of moving upwards?...

Crude's Rallying Point?

I guess this time Crude might rally, the last time I am anticipating to make its move and that was two days ago was stalled, this time there is a chance it will...it was a battle of hard bounce and a hard drop the last four trading days...I think that was enough already, and this is the time now, let's see...

What's Going On?

As of this posting, the market is still dropping, it doesn't show any sign of recovery, usually by this time it is showing a sign of 'breathing', but as of this moment there is no sign of recovery, what's going on Mr. Market?...

 

 

Similar Move

The market today moves almost in the same manner? I think they do as shown from charts below.

 

 

About Market 'Change'

I was just talking about this from my recent post about 'change' in the market...

http://seekingalpha.com/article/2107633-when-the-facts-change-then-we-change-investors-should-consider-midas-golds-significant-upside

When Market Change...

What else could you do when the market reverses, except just accept what it do and what it does, like today's market. So when market 'change', you should 'change' too...no need to think further, by just looking at it, you know what it's going to do...

 

 

 

 

Sold ES @1860.00

Not a good sign, exited for a loss...that bar with a long wick tail sends a bearish signal..

Buy ES at 1861.25

 

Gold's Two 'h' Pattern

From this one-hour chart, I guess two 'h' pattern  is enough, a third one is too much? What do you think Gold 'diggers'? I guess for today's session, a sideways or third drop is the battle, but by Wednesday and Thursday, a consolidation for the hard bounce is expected. Let's see.

Tip Alert: Crude's Possible Upside

Shown is the one-hour chart of the Crude prior to Calendar event(s) housing report by 10 am ET. I guess based from this chart, a possible upside for the Crude is possible. Two consecutive 'Darvas' box? is the basis for my observation.

Bear Flag Trade Setup

This time the market tumble some more with that bear flag pattern, surrendering further to selling pressure.

http://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2014/03/facing-execution-gap-running-your.html

Weekly's Market Random Thoughts

The market bullish sentiment is on idle situation with that bearish red bar with a long wick tail. Though it recovers heavily within a week, but I guess there is this tendency/sentiment from participants that there is a possible consolidation in the offing. It might drop a little bit but nobody knows, but that bar is a big concern. But from this humble market observer's point of view, the market is still on the way up with that (deep) cup with a handle pattern.

As for the Gold, that's the hardest part to make a view from the technical side, it's way too low from the ema's/ma's. I guess it might take a long time to get back from the three consecutive days of 'hard' setback. Three days of hard drop is going to take a while to recover, no idea what Gold will do from this scenario. Will take it day by day, let's just wait and watch how the HFT's miraculous ('maneuveristic') approach might/will do.

As for the Crude, it will be a long zag and zig days to come, a consolidation of hard bounce and a hard drop. It will be a day to day battle between participants, with the advantage going to those participants who has the guts to stay patient and watch the move like a hawk to their advantage.

 

 

Selling Spree

The market went on to a selling spree today, Friday, a profit taking day. Nasdaq was the leading sellers in today's market. Learned that biotech was the culprit that led traders/investors sold their position(s). Chart below was from the Nasdaq (NQ), it formed an 'h' pattern, a sell short signal.

Looking Back!

Was scanning my humble blog the first time I reformat (though I've created other blog(s) before this one, I guess almost 20 of them?) in 2010, I guess I improved dramatically in my trading. This is the process of learning, it takes time and lots of patience with it. Learning even in any endeavor takes time, perseverance, commitment, and of course your passion and the love of what you do no matter what.

As I was looking at the chart below and the time I started to get involved in the market, I can see that I was at the right time and at the right place to participate with it. I experienced the hardest part of it, the crash, the flash crash, the bulls and the bears, and of course the uncertainty. That's the beauty of being part with the market, you learned the ups and downs, and whenever/whatever that comes with it, it is already normal in seeing what the market is doing on a daily basis, no more surprises. That's how the market is, it fluctuates, if it doesn't, the market is 'dead'.

Counting the years of my participation, I guess I am on the way of riding with it. From Malcom Gladwell's book (Outliers?), and from other studies, in any endeavor or to master a craft, it takes 10,000 hours of actual practice to master it (your craft). Based from my counting, I already exceeded that 10,000 hours (7.5 years from my counting) of actual participation or learning the market.

That's just came to my thoughts today as I look back!

Gold's Bullish Signal (again?)?

Showing in here a one hour chart from Gold that this humble market participant 'observed' that it might turn bullish because of that 'inverted head and shoulder' pattern (is emerging?). As far as this market observer is concern, it is forming that way. Though it might stall by tomorrow because it's Friday, a profit taking day, but there is a big chance come next week or maybe late Friday before market close it might starts to roll. Let's see, nobody knows, but you know market is unpredictable, it might go anywhere.

ES Bull Flag Setup

ES made a nice run again because of the positive jobless report and the existing home sales?, if you missed the consolidation from the triangle formation, you can still put on a trade when it pulled back from the bull flag pattern...

Possible Rally For The ES and the Crude?

Shown are the 1-hr chart from the ES and the Crude ahead of the FOMC meeting, I guess a possible rally might emerge after the meeting...the charts area forming a cup with a handle pattern, a bullish signal...

 

Doug Casey’s 9 Secrets for Successful Speculation | Casey Research

Doug Casey’s 9 Secrets for Successful Speculation | Casey Research

ES Bull Flag Trade Setup

ES made a nice formation/consolidation from 'Darvas box' pattern, and a bullish flag emerge...

Crude Trade Setup

Entry: 9827
Stop: 9816
Target: 9877
Gain: 50 points
Note: Traded Crude in the Globex session and was able to capture the 'meat'...if you are patient, stay sittin' and keep watching the market like a hawk you can make a 'difference', as that famous trading words...'I make my money by sitting'?...

Gold Is Breaking Out

Shown is the one hour chart from Gold...

Overnight Trade Setup

Gold made a nice run in the overnight session while most participants are still 'snoring'...

Tip Alert: Stock For The Long Run

I am showing here my Stock(s) For The Long Run, an idea taken from Prof. Jeremy Siegel's famous book. I have a small position from this shipping company and will consider it as a long term. I am planning to buy some more, maybe for a year or as long as it still a 'buy' price will do so, I am not that a big time investor, I will just buy whatever amount I can have monthly, and will go from there. I have a big belief from this Greek company that it has promising potential to regain its previous high price of $120, or maybe a possible takeover. Below is the monthly and weekly chart, see (research) for yourself if it has a promising outcome...

 

Is Trading 'Easy'?

That can be answered depends how you interpret the market based from your own participation. I made this kind of question to my own trading because I do my own trading by myself without the aid of anyone except through my own way of learning. I am not saying/boasting or tooting my horn, it's because I don't have any means to pay expensive seminars, subscribe to expensive tutors or whatever those 'great' traders are espousing that they can beat the market, or those promises that they know how to make a good trade and help you make tons or millions of 'In God We Trust' paper.

That's pure nonsense as far as this humble market observer is concern, though I can't show any kind of that tons of green paper, but based from my own humbling way of participating in the market, when it comes to making trades, trading can be done by you alone, it cannot be done for you, that's for sure. Trading is within you!

So is trading is easy? No it's not, but is 'simple'! With that, you can answer that when you are in the market losing for long, as this market observer can point out. Trading can be done based from your own  market observation, reading the minds of the market...as that famous quote from the market speculators always emphasized. It's about understanding the whole market structure, it's about your own way of interpreting how you can participate based from your own way of learning, it is not about how other people's (traders) way of trading - it is about your own way.

It is not how 'sophisticated' you are, I mean those indicators, it is not about how you fill your chart with lots of indicators which 'most' don't understand - only the one who invented it can understand, or if they can/do (I mean the inventor itself), I'm sure they don't use it either (sorry folks). It is not about that vwap...profiling... fibs...tick...rsi...or whatever...those are all for sophistication, the more you 'sophisticate' your trading, the more you make it hard to make a trade, is that not 'common sense'?

So make a trade based from your own way, don't trade other trader's way, because at the end of the day, when the market opens, everybody are scrambling to make green bucks. The best way is to collate great trading ideas, mold them into your own, implement it the way you understand it based from your own way of understanding how the market works, the big question there is 'how the market works', that will be your problem to solve, that will take a long time to 'dig' your 'bonehead'.

Based from my years of losing, desperation, frustration, name (I mean the hardship in the market) it I experienced it, trading the market is simple...but it's NOT THAT EASY!

Gold's Triple Bottom

As a gold 'digger' trader, I find this formation from this 1 - hour chart as shown with the squared area a 'triple bottom'. Able to make a trade today when it is showing a positive traction from the price level of 1338. That triple bottom observation was the trigger point that today's gold is going to make a surge, and it proves...

Tip Alert: Successful

Decided to exit the trade at the price level of 102.82, considered Long Trade on Crude successful...

Tip Alert: Long Crude

Entry: 102.39
Stop: 101.80
Target: 103.10
Time Frame: 30 minute
Note: Will hold till regular session, let's see if it's going to work...