Friday's Market Update

The market indices did not perform on the upside due to Friday's profit taking day. The S&P chart below made a chaotic move, the Crude made a nice upside direction, while the Gold mostly on the sideways. The Crude is the best instrument to make a trade last Friday's market, and the rest are not that quite tradeable. To make a good outcome in trading, you need to have a different instrument to monitor for better trading selection.

 

 

NQ's 'W' Trade Setup

The market drops hard in the open today only to make a reversal a couple of hours thereafter. It made a 'w' pattern that shows a double support as shown from the 5-min chart below. Timing the reversal and riding the sloping ema's upwards is the best opportunity to make a trade in today's market.

So What Now With The Market

Nothing, do nothing, if you don't know what's going on with the market do nothing, as what Jim Rogers professed. The broad indices are topping out, including the Crude, and the Gold is struggling too. So what now in the market for traders, either take a break, watch the market price action, learn, go over with the mistakes, find something to do, or hibernate for a while. The market seems exhausted from this observer's point of view. It's time to make a break for the market participants, month of August and September in the market is a bit slow. Most participants are going on a holiday/vacation. The charts below shows how the market is up to.

 

 

Crude Wrong Setup

This refers to my earlier post regarding 'Crude Bullish Cup?'. Was wrong with my observation and got stopped at 106 as shown below. That's how the market is, it's all about probabilities, we cannot predict the market movement. All we have to do is admit we are wrong and  move on. Wait for the next trade or look for other opportunities, or might as well reverse the trade. That's how to be in the market, ready to change/adapt. In this chart, the bullish cup with a handle pattern failed.

Crude Bullish Cup?

Shown in here is the 5-hour chart from the Crude (WTI) which is forming a bullish cup with a handle pattern from the technical view of this observer. The handle is forming due to its double support from the 106 range level. While the cup was firmly/flatly supported at 103 range level. I guess it is time to put a long position at the current level with stop at the support, 106.

Monday's 'Autistic' Market

Today's market was confusing and sorry for that title word, no offense please, it's just for 'figure of speech' describing today's market environment. As everybody knows who are in the market, it moves more than that. Anyway, today's market is for the quants or the HFT's, not for the discretionary traders. Just look at the charts below, isn't these charts are all confused?

 

 

Market's Random Thoughts

It's a weekend and was summarizing the market activities the past week or so, and considering the news and the Calendar events that was scheduled, the market still made an uptrend move. Unless you are a short term participants as compared with the long 'termers', you will experienced a nerve wracking emotional pulse because of the market's up and down swing. Well, that's how the market is, if the market doesn't move in a pulsating manner, there is no market at all, the market is like a human being.

The market is topping up, it might consolidate or will move sideways within the coming days or possibly weeks. Profiteers are readying their wide basket to catch any (abrupt) potential drop of green bucks anytime. Let's get ready to 'rumble' (or ruckus) as the famous Michael Buffer always voiced out.

Anyway, better for the short term participants to make a break in the coming days or possibly weeks. Time to reflect something outside our comfort zone once in a while and have something enjoy a quiet environment.

Been a while studying/observing the market in our humble ways and it's important to have some break once in a while and think/do something different. Get some exercise possibly, do some painting, read some motivational books or whatever that can inspire us in our lives will do good. Set some goals, have more dreams, as they said, 'if you feel that your life is closer to average than you desire, you need to do more dreaming'.

From Malcom Gladwell's book Outliers, to master a craft in any field, one needs around 10,000 hours of practice in order to become used to it or become successful. That's a lot of hard work, and that's what we've been trying to practice in the market, we need continuous learning in the market. When dealing with the market, one need to be adaptable, because the market is an ever changing environment.

But we need to be balanced, not only in our life but in any of our endeavor. Also we need to continue in our learning and to continue to prepare, because when there is a chance or opportunity, we are ready to grab it. That we can apply in the market, we need to be always ready and timing is important in the market.

Vertical Leap From Gold

Quite messy in the market today especially in the regular session and also a choppy move in the Globex market earlier. Likewise the indices (S&P, Nasdaq, and the Dow), the Crude is on the profit taking mode (partly because it's Friday, most participants will enjoy their loot in the bar?), while the Gold partly recovered when it made a very heavy leap as shown below. Gold made a Darvas 'box' consolidation below the support (S3, from real platform) until it burst like a rocket powered by a high octane fuel. Have a nice weekend fellow traders, enjoy your $!

Market Update

Market indices continues to move upside for the FOMC (per reports yesterday) continues to purchase notes to augment the economy. The Crude bounced back from yesterday's positive employment report coupled with the jobless claims in today's favorable result. The Gold is still struggling, it continues to move sideways. Trading today is quite tricky for most of the big moves happened in the overnight session, if you are not quite fast enough to trade in the regular session, all you can have is the dust in your face for you are late in riding the bus, just wait for the next bus to arrive.

 

 

Crude Trade Setup

Showing here a 1-minute chart from the Crude where this market observer able to spot the triangle pattern for a precise trade execution. Spotting this kind of pattern one need to be focused and price action should be observed keenly for the market make its move in a fast pace environment.

Bonus Stock Tip - YRCW

Introducing my free Stock Tip as a gesture for some investors/traders who follow this humble market observer (if there are). I am inclined to recommend this trucking firm as a buy between $28 to $30 with stop at $24. It might reach a sell at $40. But know your risk tolerance and study carefully the company before investing/trading. But from the technical view of this observer, there is a potential to the upside, but that's not a guarantee. Trade/invest at your own risk. 

 

Crude is 'leaking'?

Seems the Crude is on the way to the drain from this daily chart. It is forming a head and shoulder pattern with its left (?) shoulder already lowering, a sign that a bearish sentiment is in the offing. That's what the interpretation of this 'self-proclaimed' technical observer. Well, as everybody in the market (and other pundits) has its own interpretation in the market, and we all ended up on the wrong side of the market. But that's how in the market, we can make our own opinion since nobody knows what the market will do next. The market is an exercise of human behavior, and all human make drastic action at any given moment. But I guess the Crude market right now is on the way down or it might turn sideways. The sentiment this  week in the market is of 'indecision' because of the weekly calendar events. Participants are gauging each others throat what the next move might/will be. But according the Art Cashin, CNBC contributor, we're going to expect some fireworks this week. Let's see what that fireworks would be. Also, Prince Khalid Al Waleed of Saudi Arabia caution the OPEC last week that Crude oil is not much going to be in-demand in the US for sometime because of the continuous exploration of  domestic 'fracking'.

A Climatic 'V' Position

A very powerful reversal happened this Friday's market, especially for the Dow and the S&P as shown from this 15-minute chart. Notice the  hard drop (catching the falling knife) that originates from the Globex (overnight session) till the first hour or so from the open. A powerful 'v' (position???) formation emerge that turn the tide to the bull side. Catching this kind of trade is the best opportunity even in the middle portion of the trade. You don't need to catch or buy the low (deep) and sell at the top, just trade the middle portion is the best trade to make a gain, as the famous Bernard Baruch profess, 'I made my money selling early'. Just ride the 4ema (the blue line) and you will not go anywhere except to the bank!

Is Gold 'Digging' Up?

Was looking up at the Gold Futures the past week and seems it's starts to rise up from the 'dead'? With the daily chart below, the July contract is forming a small 'cup with a handle' pattern, a sign of a bullish trend. And it formed a 'w' pattern, with a double support. I guess John Paulson starts to have a sigh of relief, for his position in the Gold had been battered for almost a year on the bear side. Ready to 'dig' for the Gold?, I guess it will be good now for the 'gold diggers'!

 

Visa (V) - A Classic Example of Long Term Investment

Showing here a monthly and weekly chart of Visa since its IPO in the latter part of 2009. The monthly chart shows the classic cup with a handle pattern, a bullish sign. And the other is the weekly chart showing its unprecedented upward movement. This is the kind of Warren Buffet/Peter Lynch classic example of long term investment, buy the business and sleep/or a 'buy what you know' thing.

 

 

 

Is the 80/20 Pareto Principle Applies to Trading?

Been examining the Pareto Principle of 80/20 if applies to trading, but I guess it applies so. The 20% should focus on the number of trades, that is, be selective with the days or the time to place/make a trade, not just trade here and there that leads to overtrading and incur more costs in commission. The 80% should be concentrated upon the probability of the trade setup that has the highest percent outcome.

 

 

Turning to trading Futures Crude for a change

Started to trade futures crude lately and kinda' like trading it, though it's quite volatile. Trading the crude one need to be nimble, cannot trade in a longer time frame unless you have a longer 'rope' to spread. I find trading crude is best to participate in the Globex market, the overnight session. And to capitalize on its move, scalping is the best method I find applicable.

The crude rallied the past two or three days because of the on-going events in Egypt. The chart below shows the daily move of the crude.

Market is 'now detoxicated'?

Market is correcting, as shown from this daily chart, for a while? It is showing resistance as of this posting. But I guess it is forming a head and shoulder type of pattern, a sign that the bearish formation is still valid. The market is quite volatile the past trading weeks or months, it is acting in not so unpredictable move. It is like a 'drunken' individual ready to run 'amok'. That's why engaging the market when it is acting like that is not advisable, just wait when the market is already 'detoxicated'.

I told you so...'Bank Your Profits...Now or Never!'

Validating my post last April 21, 2013 that I titled 'Bank Your Profits...Now or Never?' was a reflection that the market was at the top and needs correction.

The daily charts below says it all!

And the historic market adage 'sell in May and go away' is quite valid.

Market Exuberance

Been a while not posting on this blog and was quite busy trading the market exploring the market exuberance. Trading the market the past few weeks was quite challenging and nerve wracking if i may so. The market was on the uptrend the past months or so but was on the downtrend or in its choppy mode since the second week of May. From then on the market was on its unpredictable behavior, it's like bull today bear tomorrow.

From this daily chart of the Nasdaq 100 (NQ futures, and also it is similar to the other leading indices, the S&P 500 and the Dow), you can see the participants behavior was quite imbalance, seems its suffering from ADHD? The market from then on was for the traders, not for the investors? The traders are making tons of losses and winners, the losers are the novice traders and the winners are the pros. But if you are an individual trader trying to capitalize on the market imbalances and you do your trading based from your own understanding, you can do quite well. You have an advantage over the other ordinary individuals who are just on the fence doing nothing. That's why the market is attracted to other creative individuals who are exploring other opportunities. The market offers great opportunities to everyone and it's there for the taking, you just have the interest in learning how the market works.

KEEP TRYING, NEVER GIVE UP!

 

Easy to be a 'LOSING' TRADER!, hard to become a WINNING TRADER?

AN EXPERIENTIAL PIECE IN THE STOCK MARKET TRADING!
 

A DIFFERENT KIND OF MATERIAL FOR WOULD BE TRADER!

 

MATERIAL CONTENTS

THE INTRODUCTION: WHO AM I TO BE WELCOMED HERE IN AMERICA?

THE SCOPE: WHAT THIS PIECE IS ALL ABOUT

THE DECISION: TRADING OR INVESTING? IT’S ALL UP TO ME (OR YOU)!

THE CHALLENGE: THE HARDER I TRADE, THE UNLUCKIER I AM?

THE FINDINGS: WHEN TECHNICALS COLLIDES, CONFUSIONS BEGINS

THE RESULTS: COUNTERING FAILURES, PREPARATION AND PLANNING

THE TRADING RULES AND GUIDES

THE TACTIC/SETUP/EXECUTION PLAN: TRADE-IN-BETWEEN

THE DAILY TRADING PLEDGE AND PLAN

THE TRADING PLATFORM

THE TRADING BOOK SOURCES

THE REFERENCES: STOCK MARKET QUOTES AND PASSAGES

THE LEARNING THEMES IN TRADING

THE PSYCHOLOGICAL THEMES IN TRADING

THE PITFALL THEMES IN TRADING

THE SUCCESS THEMES IN TRADING

　
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Is Apple Not The Eye Of All Anymore?

Is Apple (AAPL) running out of  'gimmick' or ideas to get back from its hype? I guess that's what its chart is saying/showing. Make your own conclusion, or whatever you can/may think, this chart says it all. It's on the brink of collapse? Nobody knows, but unless they can think/innovate other 'gimmick' to get back 'the apple of the eye', nowhere to go except to the ground. Remember, what is 'up', must go 'down'?

Bank Your Profits...Now or Never?

The market's sentiment is not quite looking good as can be seen from these charts (shown below). Is the 'sell in May and go away' is in the store? I guess that's what these charts are growling. A head and shoulder pattern is forming (or it formed already?), a sign that the market is headed for a correction or is going to tank? Your guess is as good as mine. Brace for yourself, shorts (the bears) are in for the haul. Nobody knows what the market is going to do from these kind of patterns, all are in the same scenario. Profits are in for the taking, so take yours while the market is still in the uptrend.

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Market Rallied

The market went up smoothly today. As soon as the bell rungs, the market rallied and never look back. The bears can't do anything except to ride with the bulls behind their back and abandoned their positions. Nice to trade today, just buy in the open and sell in the close. You can make a profit equivalent for a week paycheck? Tomorrows market might get stalled a bit, probably because the market seems to get tired because of today's market action. That's normal, for the market is participated by humans. Human emotions drives the market movement. The daily chart below shows that we are in the bull market. Let's see where do we go from here. But come the month of May, where the usual adage of 'sell in May and go away' might be in the offing?

 

 

 

 

Today's Market Recap

 The market open up today only to lose it’s steam due to Cyprus problem and maybe due to profit taking. Trading early today is not a good option for in the first few minutes into the open, the market was volatile. Lots of pressure in bringing the market to go down. And the bears were quite successful. I can see a probable short trade from the settlement price when it has a form of ‘h’ pattern. Actually, there are two ‘h’ formation, the last one between the hour of 12:00 to 1:00 pm ET. There is also a pattern of inverse head and shoulder from 1:00 to 3:00 pm ET. Trading early today is not quite advisable and not good. The market today needs some time to develop in determining the trend.

Friday's market trade

Friday's market was not that kind of a tradeable one unless you do scalping.

But i did find one that can be traded upon.

With the chart below, though this is after the fact, but at least we can find an education for future trading.

The market drops hard when it surge before the open but did find resistance within the pivot line.

Opening for an entry after the participants lunch break.

Notice the uptrend line, it shows a higher lows.

The exit is within the R1 level.

This is just for our educational trading development.

 

 

 

 

Market On A Roll!

The market is on a roll for real!

Shown are the charts from the Tuesday's session from the leading indexes.

I guess the bears are in for a long nightmare.

The only way they can recover is to 'day trade' the market.

But for long, they are in for a long haul.

Though the market cannot be underestimated, it is always subject for a surprise drop.

Especially when its time to make profits.

So watch out!

The market starts rolling?

I guess that's what this chart says so.

Whenever the bears tries to take down the market, the bulls are always there to protect the market from falling.

Notice the resistance from the 2700 level, since the start of the year 2013 the market always bounced from that price.

Though it quite move erratically, the market seems showing strength.

Friday's Market Action

Don't have much things to post the past month or so mainly due to the choppiness of the market since it surge big time in the first week of January 2013.

From thereon the market turns to boring mode and if you are not used to it you will hibernate.

But that's how the market is, either you love it or hate it.

And if you lack patience you are not supposed to be in the market.

The market exploded last Friday's session after a month of consolidation.

The best bet last Friday's trading is to buy from the pullback in the open and sell before the close.

Big time money for traders last Friday's market.

I'm sure all of them are oozing in the bar after the market savoring their profits.

Let's see come Monday's session if there is a follow through.

  

Love The Market...Even In Randomness

Been a while not posting any partly due to quite busy trading the markets in random way.

Though the market surge big time early in the New Year but it hardly move upwards.

Sure lots of in-home traders are struggling confronting the market.

Notice some traders blogger are not quite that active giving some advice/ideas as compared years back.

Is that a sign that they are giving up with the ups and downs of the market or they run out of opinions to described the markets going on?

Or some or most in-home traders decided to give up or they found a new job?

Your guess is as good as mine!

As for this struggling wannabe trader, i can say there's no way giving up loving the market.

The market is such a good friend, it gives you opportunities, lots of them.

First your sanity, if you don't know what you are doing you will suffer beyond your imaginable means.

Second, you will lose your wallet and maybe your love ones.

For it consumed your hard earned money and also the most precious of all - your time.

And lastly, after experiencing lots of hardships and debacle on your being, the rewards are forthcoming.

You will learn how to trade the market beyond its randomness and the opportunity sets it.

That's where the time where all your losses starts to recover.

Trading is a process, its like planting a fruit tree that originates from a seed.

You have to nurture that seed until it starts to grow as a tree and starts to bear fruit.

Sometimes it takes time to bear fruits that's why you have to fertilize it.

The Market Surge...Big Time!

The market leap vertically welcoming the year 2013 with a big bang.

Trading Wednesday's market was a bit tricky for it surge early in the open only to lose its steam almost the whole trading day.

Was able to recover late in the trading day regaining its momentum.

For Thursday market, seems it might stall a bit and maybe will just consolidate.

But i guess the strength is still intact and might make a tight move upwards.

Happy New Trading

This year of 2013 hope would bring some kind of market improvement to our trading endeavor.

Been a while trading and figuring out how to trade the market well.

As the years passed by participating in the market, i can say trading the market is all based from the trader itself.

It's all in participants emotional behavior and well being.

Once you figure it out that its all about one's psychology, you can easily absorb how the market works.

It's not all about the technicals or market fundamentals, its all based from one's understanding how to participate in the market.

That being said, trading as all about managing one's emotions and working on yourself towards the market.