'Trading is a process of observing the market's action until such a time you can find and form trading ideas and get involved.'**

Wednesday, February 29, 2012

The market struggled today and just zigzag its way till the close when it opened slightly above its Tuesday's close.

It is struggling to get off from the 13000 level.

I guess it might struggle further till next week.

A bull trap is in the offing?

That's what everybody is expecting.

The market formed an inverse head and shoulder or a cup with a handle pattern today when it drops at around 11:00 am. ET.

Was expecting the market to rally when it reach the critical level but it failed.

Lots of programs are contemplating on that 13000 level.

So that is where the battle is, let's see who's going to prevail.

Tuesday, February 28, 2012

Trading Performance Evaluations

As I am completing the four week program of the TopStepTrader.com Combine - that allows you to trade in their firm, provided you are going to meet their trading criteria.

Below are my lists based from my performance as I described and evaluated my sub-par performance to the best (or worst?) I can recollect.

Though there are no excuses (as a trader we must be responsible for all the outcomes in our trading), below are my notes as lessons and for future improvement.

1. There is significant emotional effect trading one contract (which I am used to) as compared to three or five contracts and you are tempted to trade more contracts to possibly meet the required profit of $5,000+.  Made lots of mistakes in trading big contracts because of the eagerness to meet the criteria and did a lot of scalping which I paid dearly because of (always) getting hit with the stops (and keep on re-entering the market without clear cut plans) that led me to pay more commissions. The lesson here is that I should not pay attention first with the target profit and should just have concentrated in putting good quality trades. This is the most common lessons aspiring traders commits, looking first for the money/profit instead of making a good trade setups.

2. I did not watch myself very well and I traded for the sake of trading which is a big no no in trading. Failure to watch yourself in trading is like "sleep walking in the railroad track" - that will kill/ruin your trading career. This is what you call "over trading", which I partly described in the first list.

3. Staying too much in the market? (partly because I sleep and breath the market)! Problem of not getting breaks in the market is like a "drug addict" looking just for fun and "going to heaven?". I should have learned how to pace myself in the market and make/treat it seriously as a business and not just for (partly) entertaining. Need to learn how to differentiate the market in a businesslike manner. This is what you call "staying balance in the market". I should have treated the program in a calm/relaxation manner (not overemotional and impulsive to make trades 'for the money'?).


4. Failure to adhere to the plans and did not exercise "iron" discipline. Should have stop trading when I should have. This is what you call "know thyself". Not knowing yourself and the limitations you absorb in analysing the markets and pushing yourself (to make more trades) to the limit is like punishing yourself to the fullest extent of your intuitive function (which according to IDT class, our brain function cannot process/perform 100%, just make your own conclusion please)? Also, fighting the tape is included here, like the temptation of putting trades to make it right instead of letting the markets do its 'wants'. Is that the ego?, yes it is wannabe' trader!


5. Not fully focus and motivated to the real purpose of the program, i.e., put some trades that are not necessary and without purpose.


These are the main reasons (seems they are all redundant?) based from my own analysis regarding my performance in the Combine program. I just don't know what my scout would rate my performance and I am looking forward to try it again.


The Combine program is a good challenge for any aspiring traders in improving one's skills. It will help develop your analytic performance in putting trade setups.


All in all, I find my experiences in the program as challenging, helpful, educational and fun.

Study And Practice




The Kirk Report


Posted: 28 Feb 2012 12:49 PM PST
Study & Practice
Here is a question recently received from a member…
Q: I am a new trader with roughly nine months of experience. I work full-time and trading for me is very much a part-time hobby. For the past few months and since becoming a member, I have been devoted an average of one hour per day toward learning how to trade using both your site and a trading simulator. In your opinion, how should I properly prioritize my time between reading and learning (via your strategy reports, notebook, chart shows, recommended links and books, etc.) versus actual practicing (time spent on simulator) to gain the skills I need as quickly as possible? While I’m making very good progress as my results in my simulated trading are seeing steady and significant improvement, I would like to know your thoughts and whether you have any recommended rules of thumb to share with me.
A: I must start by congratulating you on a number of things including the fact that you devote as much time and effort as you do, that you already understand the difference between learning and practicing to acquire trading skills, and that you’re using simulated practice trading at this stage of your early learning curve before putting real capital in play. I cannot praise you enough for the approach you have adopted especially during this early-stage of your learning curve. So, great job!
It has been my experience, both personally and in my mentoring of other traders, that skill development in trading comes primarily from experience. While you can spend hours and hours reading and studying terrific books, magazines, blogs, tweets, and so forth, if you are not also then taking what you learn from those and actively applying them in real live market situations, then you are not doing what is necessary to get the experience you need. Trading successfully, unfortunately, is not a skill you can acquire by being a passive learner.
As a rule of thumb – for every hour of study, you should be practicing at least the same amount. Those who I have personally mentored on average when we start out working together have shown that for every hour of practice, they typically spend about five times that same amount in study. That’s far too much unless you are just starting out and know almost nothing about how the markets operate.
Unquestionably, at the very beginning you’ll certainly have to be devote a lot of study time than those with any level of experience, but the faster you ramp up the time and effort devoted to real practice the better off you will be. In fact, at first you won’t even really understand how to apply what you learn through books, blogs, etc. because you haven’t previously gained the experiences that put those lessons into proper context. For example, I can stress the importance of risk management to new traders and weighing technical setups in terms of probability analysis, but until they’ve been taken to the woodshed for a real beat down in the market, they won’t have a clue to its significance. This is why both practice and study must occur simultaneously.
Through my mentoring, I also often have a unique perspective in this same regard as I track and watch their progress very closely. For example, I have a member now in my mentorship group, Eric, who averages over 80 simulated trades every single week. Another member, Timothy, who has similar amount of experience and skills to date with Eric in comparison only makes an average of 3 trades per week. Which one do you think will go through the learning curve more quickly and develop more skills?
Of course, it will be Bob providing that he also finds time to dedicate an equal amount of concentrated focus figuring out why certain trades worked well and which ones did not and why. This is why you must engage in what is called “concentrated practice,” not just trading around randomly (a problem often seen in those who use simulators versus real capital in practice). So, on both accounts, there needs to be an equal balance here between both study and practice. Both must be present in equal amounts for proper skill development.
Finally, once you acquired the skills and knowledge to produce profitable results in simulation, then you must move quickly into trading with real capital. As you will soon discover, while trading simulators will help you build skills rapidly at first, you won’t really know whether your strategies can actually work until you put real capital in play. A lot of methods look terrific on paper, but in practice they don’t work because emotion and stress becomes part of the equation. And as you’ll later learn, that’s really the most challenging part of trading once you have acquired basic skills and knowledge to trade well.

Be Adaptable!

The market barely moves today and not much edge to find a viable trades except to scalped it.

This is the problem while in the process of trading especially if you have no clear plans based from market conditions.

Unless you are a swinger, you don't need to panic making some gains when the market opens.

As a day trader, you need a clear cut plans what the market conditions brings.

You just don't need to trade for the sake of trading, and not confuse yourself that trading is for entertaining.

Unless you are doing it in simulation, but if for real there is a significant effect that affects your mind because of the involvement of emotions.

And learning to be adaptable based from current market environments is important.

Monday, February 27, 2012

The market made a dramatic reversal when it drops hard in the open.

A classic cup with a handle pattern if you are basing from multiple time frames.

This is a classic buy low sell high Wall Street common modus operandi.

The bulls are really determined to buy the deep whenever the bears tried to tumble the market.

The market continuous its bullish trend.

Let's be aware that a correction (profit taking) might happen anytime soon.

That's for sure!

Saturday, February 25, 2012

About Trading From Charles Kirk

As an avid follower of Charles Kirk, I am sharing few essential notes about his trading that I've just taken from his latest interview.

* He began trading with a $2,000 deposit in 1993 and now trades with a $3 million dollar portfolio.

* Since 1999 he has been a self-employed, full-time independent trader.

* He said that in trading, "no matter how much effort you devote to your trading, success is never guaranteed."

* He mentioned that his edge, "comes from a combination of my work ethic (i.e. no one works harder or longer than I do), lots of experience and skill (I have been doing this for almost 20 years), and mental/psychological discipline (I have learned how not to fight myself or the market and/or trade out of ego)."

* "I am still a technical pattern focused trader - in other words I search for price pattern setups that offer good risk/reward properties and I trade those patterns as they develop."

* "In a market like this, you have to look for the patterns that setup and trade those patterns. In essence, keep it focused on the price action and the patterns that develop and not much else."

* "Professional traders know that it is not what you trade that is important, but how you trade it."

* "My focus is on price action, patterns that develop from it, and constantly searching for the best low/risk, high/reward opportunities while managing my risk at all times."

* "To trade successfully, you have to be street smart and that only comes from experience and working/developing your very own trading strategy."

* "Trading is observation, pure and experiential.'

* "Trading is more about knowing when not to trade, than it is about trading."

These are just few notes, to find out more about him, click UNDER RESOURCES. I highly recommend his site for the invaluable trading education he provides.

Probable Trade Setup

In this chart, I am showing a trade setup based from my own understanding in the market.

This is just for educational purposes and trading is about pattern recognition.

Once you learn how to recognize a pattern, you don't need those fancy indicators.

So let's begin a trade!

In this chart, I am showing the DIA, similar to the YM futures.

The market made a crazy move last Friday, even though it moves that way I find one probable setup that states below.

The two arrows are the entry and exit, and this is a short trade.

As you can see from the first arrow, it formed what they call the bear flag.

That's a sign that the market is now on a bearish trend.

The Entry: $129.65 - for a short sell

The Exit: $129.35  - for a cover

Gain: +$0.30 cents per share (that's a sure trade, if you sold short (you borrow from your broker) a 1,000 shares, that's equivalent to $300.00 in a span of half an hour?).

Not bad for a day's watching the market, isn't it?