Friday's Gold Trade Setup

Friday's market was slow, and was not that inclined to put (a trade) nor participate but the price action and some recognition of the pattern in the Gold last Friday's session 'urge' me to place a small trade and test the market. First entry was a failure and got stopped for my stop was too close/tight. Did not bother to place another trade for it seems the market was not that favorable. After some few hours of watching the market action, decided to place one more try for I am quite positive with my conviction that there is this pattern that is emerging that might turn into a good setup. The overnight session formed a deep cup (or a 'w' like), and a 'triangle' like formation (as shown) led me to place a small trade. I'm actually anticipating a cup with a handle formation here, but it fails. Maybe by Monday's session the handle will materialize, let's see.

Entry:   12863; 9:35 am.
Exit:     12892; 11:02 am.
Gain:    29 points x $10 = $290.00
Note:   Able to recover the first loss of 10 points ($100)


(below is copy of real trade)
Order Book Filled
Snapshot 15 Nov 2013 9:05:15 AM

Buy/Sell Volume Fills Submit Time Time Account Market
Sell 1\1 1@12892 11:02:29.842 AM 11:02:29.855 AM traderdg1 SIM:Gold Dec13
Buy 1\1 1@12863 9:35:06.006 AM 9:35:06.105 AM traderdg1 SIM:Gold Dec13
Sell 1\1 1@12859 7:49:18.090 AM 9:25:07.217 AM traderdg1 SIM:Gold Dec13
Buy 1\1 1@12868 7:48:12.706 AM 7:48:17.430 AM traderdg1 SIM:Gold Dec13

Addendum: My decision to exit at the upper arrow was because of that 'indecision' bar, and the price action from this area at that time is not convincing from my standpoint. Other than that, the level of resistance is noticeable.

Overnight Trade Setup From Gold

As they said from Japanese words, making money is like digging (in) a sand with a pin ( a needle? or words to that effect), so to make money in trading you need to do something like this trade setup from Gold in the overnight session. You need to stay awake to be a Gold 'digger', in this kind of market or trading business, as an ordinary participant where your own advantage is your observation against the well capitalized/well equipped/brightest market participants, all you have to do is to snipe when they are out. Most of the time you can't beat them, but with patience like that 'words' from the 'arigatus', you can still outsmart them!

Short Trade Setup From Gold

Gold was indecisive from the overnight session only to drop hard late into the market closing. It formed an 'h' pattern like, as Jamie from the Wall Street Warrior always posted from his blog. I wonder what's going on with Jamie these past months, I haven't seen any new post. Anyhow, this 'classic' pattern from Gold today is one of his favorite trade setup.

Hard Landing From Gold

While all the major indices made a nice upwards move in Friday's market, the Gold suffered a hard landing to the floor (ouch...) as shown from this 15 minute chart. The market last Friday were all positive because of encouraging jobless report. But for the Gold which is my/the main instrument in tracking/finding trades suffered the most. Not able to catch this encouraging 'short' due to some pressing matters, that could have been a slam. Been missing a lot of moves lately, will just bounce the next time around.

* The reason I'm quite busy is because of my project, I am building my own customized (just for fun) target shooting made from scratch. I am building a 22 LR 1911 model that I will convert from a 1911 airsoft blowback pistol, I don't know if it will work, but I am just experimenting it just to have something to do and to practice my own learning in gunsmithing hobby. Below are some of my parts that I have already in mind/ready to acquire for my initial preparation.

Specifications:
- Velocity: 320 fps (0.2 g BB) / Range 90-100 feet
- Barrel Length: 5 inches / 12 cm
- Magazine Capacity: 17 Rounds
Features:
- Full Metal Construction
- Fixed Front & Rear Sights
- Authentic Trademarks
- Green Gas Blowback Action
- Accuracy Proven


$95.99
Item Code:
GP-PS-1911-0516
UPC Code:
29858805056
Guns Styles / Models:
1911 Airsoft Pistol
Airsoft Manufacturers:
Soft Air Cyber Gun & Palco
Manufacturer Part No: 18050516
Stock: Ships in 1 Week
Model: 1911 GBB Airsoft Gun

GSG .22LR 1911 Conversion Kit w/ 10rd Magazine GER1911CONV
Special Price: $149.99

Quick Overview

A drop in slide conversion kit from German Sports Guns. Converts your .45 1911 pistol to a .22LR 1911 pistol. Comes with slide, barrel,one ten round magazine, and instructions in a plastic storage case.

The GSG conversion kit is designed for full sized (Gold Cup/Government/Combat Commander) 1911 frames (it will not fit the Officers/Titan sized frames), and it comes with the parts kit to work on both 70- and 80-series type 1911 pistols.

Is "STUCK" or STOCK...that's sucks...*

Stuck futures up on hopes stimulus to continue; Tesla stumbles

Reuters – 11 minutes ago

 

By Chuck Mikolajczak

 

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. stock index futures rose on Wednesday on the possibility the Federal Reserve may keep stimulus measures in place longer than anticipated ahead of data key later this week on the labor market and economic growth.

John Williams, president of the San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank, said Tuesday the Fed should wait for stronger evidence of economic momentum before pulling back on its massive bond-buying program, but should then announce a definitive end to the stimulus.

Adding to speculation about a more dovish Fed, two of the Federal Reserve's top staff economists made the case in new research papers for more aggressive action by the U.S. central bank to drive down unemployment by promising to hold interest rates lower for longer.

Many market participants have expected the Fed to hold off on scaling back its $85 billion monthly bond purchases due to expectations that a partial government shutdown in early October has hurt the economy.

The S&P 500 (^GSPC) is up 23.6 percent for the year, putting it on track for its best yearly performance since 2003, boosted in large part by the Fed's stimulus measures.

S&P 500 futures rose 8.8 points and were above fair value, a formula that evaluates pricing by taking into account interest rates, dividends and time to expiration on the contract. Dow Jones industrial average futures gained 67 points and Nasdaq 100 futures added 12.25 points.

Tesla Motors Inc (TSLA) shares slumped 11.1 percent to $157.15 before the opening bell after the electric car maker forecast a weaker-than-expected fourth-quarter profit and posted third-quarter Model S deliveries that disappointed some analysts.

Microsoft Corp (MSFT) edged up 0.6 percent to $36.85 in premarket trading after sources familiar with the matter said the world's largest software maker had narrowed its list of external candidates to replace Chief Executive Steve Ballmer to about five people, including Ford Motor Co (NYS:F) chief Alan Mulally and former Nokia (HEX:NOK1V) CEO Stephen Elop.

As earnings season moves into its tail end, S&P companies expected to report earnings on Wednesday include Qualcomm Inc (QCOM) and Whole Foods Market Inc (WFM).

According to Thomson Reuters data, of 404 companies in the S&P 500 that reported results through Tuesday morning, 69.6 percent beat Wall Street's expectations, above the long-term average of 63 percent. However, just 53.3 percent beat revenue forecasts, below the 61 percent average since 2002.
European shares rose, erasing the previous session's losses, on better-than-expected results. (.EU)

Most Asian markets were little changed amid uncertainty over monetary policy in the United States and Europe, though Japanese stocks rose, thanks to gains in major car makers.


* Just read this column from Yahoo news...

Halloween Market

It's the first day of November, a Halloween day, no idea if the market is conducive to trade or participate today, the way I can see from the market today is quite confusing. Maybe there might be a last 'minute' trade before the close, but I think lots of noise might happen early in the market. Though the indices are on the positive trend as of this posting, the futures are in quandary. We'll see how it goes, will just do net surfing for the day and do some/search other activity/interest for some diversion, sometimes we need to take a break/stay away from the market once in a while. Though it's so hard to be away from the market when you are so 'attached' to it (seems better than having a partner?), especially if you sleep and breath with the market, in bad times and in good times, in losing and in winning, love the market is what you do.

!@#$%^&*(+? Setup For Thursday

With this 15 minute chart from Crude, I don't know ever since I learned trading in '07, no idea if I can trade this s#$%@&*...

Addendum: I think it's for Halloween?

 

A Nice Triangle Setup ('Offense') From Gold

Spotted this pattern from Gold late in the overnight session and was able to capture the main move. As if it was the days of the Chicago Bulls era under Phil Jackson's 'triangle offense'. And it was a slam trade today from Gold. Nice triangle formation!

A Golden Surge From Gold

A very interesting move by the Gold early in the session when it surge vertically as shown from the 15-min chart below. It formed a double bottom as shown from the rectangular box before it burst like a gunfire. If you are late with the sudden strike, you can still catch the half move when it pulled back from the 'u' pattern like area. It was consolidating from the 1310 to 1320 range level the past few days as shown from the 5-hour chart (second below), also a box pattern like. Actually it was a bull flag from my observation, but a long/extended one. Though from my point of observation, it was a very risky 'long' trade but it is a valid one (considering lots of negative comments from some pundits), just with a tight stop. And likewise it was seconded by the positive employment reports.

Don't Get Involved In The Market When He Is Not Acting Well

It's late night and can't get to sleep and wanting to find out or should I say how the market works or how it affects or relates to individual(s). It's just the thought of one of 'those' times that you wonder or give some meaning on your own especially if you've been attached to the market for quite a while and still trying to figure out really how the market 'really...really' works. I made those two words repeatable because when you are involved with the (like you sleep and breath with it) market on a daily basis, it is like a cycle that is always repeating same movement that you can't understand. It is like an insane person or a human being having a Parkinson's disease. And all the participants are trying to understand everything on it and they can't detect nor figure it out how to approach an 'insane' market. Most of all will conclude 'that's how the market is', if the market is not that 'insane', there is no market at all, as some will/would chorused. I might agree with that statement that the market is that 'that' insane, because you cannot really 'understand' the market and will never be. The market is a continuing unpredictable 'animal', that will haunt each and every participants because of its notorious or treacherous moves. I am talking here about in the trader's perspective not through investors insights. Trading the market is such a very delicate endeavor especially if you are not that prepared, and if you are treating trading as a ticket to a cash machine. That's a wrong impression. There are many reasons why we traders fail to understand... is that we cannot just trade and get involved in the market all the time. Especially if he is really...really that crazy, or else we will end up one.

Shutdown 'Short' Trade Setup

As the government shuts down, the market went shut down too. And the best way is to capitalized on it. And this 5-min chart from Gold was a no-brainer 'short' trade. Just press the sell button (upper arrow) and press the buy (cover) button (lower arrow), and on your way for a nice profitable trade. That's why watching and observing the market movement is the best way to participate and gain from it. Patience pays off and it's a virtue!

Now Facebook (FB) is Souring

Shown is the weekly chart of the social lovers, the Facebook, known better in the socials as FB. From its IPO in May of 2012 at a price of $42?, its drops to a mere $18 after five months. And from then, and after almost a year of consolidation, it formed a 'cup with a handle' (a Wall Street lingo, that means a bullish trend is in the offing), though the handle was a little bit extended. Looking at it right now it is souring, and Mark Zuckerberg must be 'zucking' his thumb with cash!

Friday's Trade Setup

Been a while not posting in this blog for the market most of the time giving you feel not to do something or not giving you great ideas what or how to participate especially the past weeks because of uncertainty in the  market. I phrase uncertainty or unpredictability because the market (or Mr. Market) make its move in uncertain ways, in an uncertain time, and in uncertain day. Like the chart(s) below:

This 15-min chart of Crude is zigzagging in the overnight session until it reverses and leap vertically in the regular session. Notice that resistance level (the line below), it is a powerful point where the market bounced opening for an entry above that trend line (above). If you understand the trend(s) as what Trader Vic of the Wall Street Master implies, you can have an idea how to make/put trades, and this is one of his example, the change in trend.

For the Gold 30-min chart second below, it made a tight consolidation in the overnight session for its powerful reversal. Price action and level observation (the support/resistance) is the right approach to deal in this kind of trade.

 

 

Tuesday's Trade Setup

A nice triangle formation from the 15-minute chart of the Gold futures contract in today's market. Spotting this kind of setup or formation needs keen understanding of the price action as well as the bars formation relative to multiple time frame. This is where pattern recognition in trading the market is a must for discretionary traders.

Labor Market

No market today for it's holiday, but the futures markets are open because it operates electronically. The indices (Nasdaq, NQ) were all gap up today, but the Crude and the Gold were gap down. The Nasdaq formed  a deep cup with a handle pattern. The Crude formed a small double cup but minus the handle (not able to sustain the load and it bends). While the Gold made a reversal forming a 'u' pattern like. All are in 15 - minute chart frame.

 

 

Better to Trade in the Overnight Session

It's better to trade in the overnight session (for Futures markets) because most of the participants are busy snoring. Not much noise and the market moves are quiet and smooth. And you can capture the big move in the overnight session because that's where the European and the Asian markets are active. Just take a look at the chart below for the Crude and the Gold and see/compare the movement from the overnight session (rectangle area) and the regular open (circled area). Just don't sleep and you can make a decent trade. You can have your decent sleep after you make your trade in the overnight session and let the suckers fight it out in the regular market.

 

 

Overnight Crude and Gold Trade Setup

The commodities made a nice run in the overnight session due to concern in Syria. Both the Crude and the Gold made a stunning move upwards. The Gold formed a shallow cup with a handle, while the Crude went up all the way to the hill and still climbing as of this posting. Seems it won't stop going up till the war breaks out.

 

Tuesday's Market Update

The market made an unprecedented move early in the overnight session due to main concern in Syria. The Gold formed a cup (or a double cup?) with a handle pattern as shown from this 15 - minute chart. While the Crude  formed a shallow cup. The Nasdaq made an inverse head and shoulder pattern that was originated from yesterday's session.

 

 

 

 

Monday's Market Update

The market made a different kind of moves today partly because its Monday, the first trading day of the week which is usually a gauging sentiment. The Nasdaq futures drops hard in the middle of the trading day when it move upwards into the open.  The Gold did not do any potential move except that it induce more volatility. Same with the Crude, though it gap up in the overnight open, it struggled for most of the whole trading day.

 

 

Gold Update

While the main market indices are struggling, the commodities especially the Gold is silently making its move to the upside. As can be seen from the daily chart below, it continues to defy the 'shorters' (the bears) and they are getting squeezed. The way I can see from my crystal ball is that it might reach the 1400 level and might consolidate a bit and then on the way to 1500.

Friday's Crude Trade Setup

A powerful reversal from the Crude market today. Notice that bullish hammer followed by another bullish candle that exactly move up from the hammer candle's closed price. Capturing this kind of move needs a lot of attention from the price action, and you need a wider stop.

Friday's Gold Trade Setup

Gold made a nice run from today's trading. Nice consolidation as shown from the rectangular area. This is where patience in waiting for the right opportunity pays off.

NASDAQ TO 'NASDARK'

The market was struggling moving upwards today when the Nasdaq (indices) experienced a breakdown around noontime and able to resume its trading activities two or three hours after. It's like a patient who loses its breath in the middle of the bypass surgery and was revive only through resuscitation. The chart below shows how it 'lost its breath'.

Is Gold On The Way Up?

Showing the daily chart below of the Gold futures market, the way I observe from the technical view seems it's on the way up. It penetrates the trend line and the ema's indicators are pointing upwards. And looks like it formed a shallow cup with a handle pattern. My best guess here is that it might reach or breach the 1400 level (this week?) and might stall from there. Let's find out this week's market.

Gold Made Another Big Leap

Gold made another stunning leap last Friday's market. It drops (down) early in the open but recovered dramatically. It maintained its thrust till the close. Looks like Gold starts to recover.

Gold Made a Double Leap

Shown is the 15-minute chart from the Gold Futures where it made a two vertical leap, the first from the overnight session and the second from the regular session. Capturing this kind of setup needs a lot of waiting and patience. Able to capture the first leap but missed the second one for I fell asleep, got tired waiting for it (Jesse Livermore says, 'Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon. I found it one of the hardest things to learn').

Sunday's Gold Trade Setup

Able to spot this price action from the Globex market and was quite successful in 'digging' the Gold for a nice opportunity. Got stop out on the first try but due to price action interpretation, tried to come back and capture the big vertical leap from Gold. That's what you called timing the opportunity and as what Jesse Livermore, the famous trader known for, it's the 'sitting that's making me money' (because I've been sitting from my trading table one hour before the Globex market has to open and was imagining/analyzing the market).

Here's the chart and how to be a Gold 'digger'!

Friday's Market Update

The market indices did not perform on the upside due to Friday's profit taking day. The S&P chart below made a chaotic move, the Crude made a nice upside direction, while the Gold mostly on the sideways. The Crude is the best instrument to make a trade last Friday's market, and the rest are not that quite tradeable. To make a good outcome in trading, you need to have a different instrument to monitor for better trading selection.

 

 

NQ's 'W' Trade Setup

The market drops hard in the open today only to make a reversal a couple of hours thereafter. It made a 'w' pattern that shows a double support as shown from the 5-min chart below. Timing the reversal and riding the sloping ema's upwards is the best opportunity to make a trade in today's market.

So What Now With The Market

Nothing, do nothing, if you don't know what's going on with the market do nothing, as what Jim Rogers professed. The broad indices are topping out, including the Crude, and the Gold is struggling too. So what now in the market for traders, either take a break, watch the market price action, learn, go over with the mistakes, find something to do, or hibernate for a while. The market seems exhausted from this observer's point of view. It's time to make a break for the market participants, month of August and September in the market is a bit slow. Most participants are going on a holiday/vacation. The charts below shows how the market is up to.

 

 

Crude Wrong Setup

This refers to my earlier post regarding 'Crude Bullish Cup?'. Was wrong with my observation and got stopped at 106 as shown below. That's how the market is, it's all about probabilities, we cannot predict the market movement. All we have to do is admit we are wrong and  move on. Wait for the next trade or look for other opportunities, or might as well reverse the trade. That's how to be in the market, ready to change/adapt. In this chart, the bullish cup with a handle pattern failed.

Crude Bullish Cup?

Shown in here is the 5-hour chart from the Crude (WTI) which is forming a bullish cup with a handle pattern from the technical view of this observer. The handle is forming due to its double support from the 106 range level. While the cup was firmly/flatly supported at 103 range level. I guess it is time to put a long position at the current level with stop at the support, 106.

Monday's 'Autistic' Market

Today's market was confusing and sorry for that title word, no offense please, it's just for 'figure of speech' describing today's market environment. As everybody knows who are in the market, it moves more than that. Anyway, today's market is for the quants or the HFT's, not for the discretionary traders. Just look at the charts below, isn't these charts are all confused?

 

 

Market's Random Thoughts

It's a weekend and was summarizing the market activities the past week or so, and considering the news and the Calendar events that was scheduled, the market still made an uptrend move. Unless you are a short term participants as compared with the long 'termers', you will experienced a nerve wracking emotional pulse because of the market's up and down swing. Well, that's how the market is, if the market doesn't move in a pulsating manner, there is no market at all, the market is like a human being.

The market is topping up, it might consolidate or will move sideways within the coming days or possibly weeks. Profiteers are readying their wide basket to catch any (abrupt) potential drop of green bucks anytime. Let's get ready to 'rumble' (or ruckus) as the famous Michael Buffer always voiced out.

Anyway, better for the short term participants to make a break in the coming days or possibly weeks. Time to reflect something outside our comfort zone once in a while and have something enjoy a quiet environment.

Been a while studying/observing the market in our humble ways and it's important to have some break once in a while and think/do something different. Get some exercise possibly, do some painting, read some motivational books or whatever that can inspire us in our lives will do good. Set some goals, have more dreams, as they said, 'if you feel that your life is closer to average than you desire, you need to do more dreaming'.

From Malcom Gladwell's book Outliers, to master a craft in any field, one needs around 10,000 hours of practice in order to become used to it or become successful. That's a lot of hard work, and that's what we've been trying to practice in the market, we need continuous learning in the market. When dealing with the market, one need to be adaptable, because the market is an ever changing environment.

But we need to be balanced, not only in our life but in any of our endeavor. Also we need to continue in our learning and to continue to prepare, because when there is a chance or opportunity, we are ready to grab it. That we can apply in the market, we need to be always ready and timing is important in the market.

Vertical Leap From Gold

Quite messy in the market today especially in the regular session and also a choppy move in the Globex market earlier. Likewise the indices (S&P, Nasdaq, and the Dow), the Crude is on the profit taking mode (partly because it's Friday, most participants will enjoy their loot in the bar?), while the Gold partly recovered when it made a very heavy leap as shown below. Gold made a Darvas 'box' consolidation below the support (S3, from real platform) until it burst like a rocket powered by a high octane fuel. Have a nice weekend fellow traders, enjoy your $!