Don't Get Involved In The Market When He Is Not Acting Well

It's late night and can't get to sleep and wanting to find out or should I say how the market works or how it affects or relates to individual(s). It's just the thought of one of 'those' times that you wonder or give some meaning on your own especially if you've been attached to the market for quite a while and still trying to figure out really how the market 'really...really' works. I made those two words repeatable because when you are involved with the (like you sleep and breath with it) market on a daily basis, it is like a cycle that is always repeating same movement that you can't understand. It is like an insane person or a human being having a Parkinson's disease. And all the participants are trying to understand everything on it and they can't detect nor figure it out how to approach an 'insane' market. Most of all will conclude 'that's how the market is', if the market is not that 'insane', there is no market at all, as some will/would chorused. I might agree with that statement that the market is that 'that' insane, because you cannot really 'understand' the market and will never be. The market is a continuing unpredictable 'animal', that will haunt each and every participants because of its notorious or treacherous moves. I am talking here about in the trader's perspective not through investors insights. Trading the market is such a very delicate endeavor especially if you are not that prepared, and if you are treating trading as a ticket to a cash machine. That's a wrong impression. There are many reasons why we traders fail to understand... is that we cannot just trade and get involved in the market all the time. Especially if he is really...really that crazy, or else we will end up one.

Shutdown 'Short' Trade Setup

As the government shuts down, the market went shut down too. And the best way is to capitalized on it. And this 5-min chart from Gold was a no-brainer 'short' trade. Just press the sell button (upper arrow) and press the buy (cover) button (lower arrow), and on your way for a nice profitable trade. That's why watching and observing the market movement is the best way to participate and gain from it. Patience pays off and it's a virtue!

Now Facebook (FB) is Souring

Shown is the weekly chart of the social lovers, the Facebook, known better in the socials as FB. From its IPO in May of 2012 at a price of $42?, its drops to a mere $18 after five months. And from then, and after almost a year of consolidation, it formed a 'cup with a handle' (a Wall Street lingo, that means a bullish trend is in the offing), though the handle was a little bit extended. Looking at it right now it is souring, and Mark Zuckerberg must be 'zucking' his thumb with cash!

Friday's Trade Setup

Been a while not posting in this blog for the market most of the time giving you feel not to do something or not giving you great ideas what or how to participate especially the past weeks because of uncertainty in the  market. I phrase uncertainty or unpredictability because the market (or Mr. Market) make its move in uncertain ways, in an uncertain time, and in uncertain day. Like the chart(s) below:

This 15-min chart of Crude is zigzagging in the overnight session until it reverses and leap vertically in the regular session. Notice that resistance level (the line below), it is a powerful point where the market bounced opening for an entry above that trend line (above). If you understand the trend(s) as what Trader Vic of the Wall Street Master implies, you can have an idea how to make/put trades, and this is one of his example, the change in trend.

For the Gold 30-min chart second below, it made a tight consolidation in the overnight session for its powerful reversal. Price action and level observation (the support/resistance) is the right approach to deal in this kind of trade.

 

 

Tuesday's Trade Setup

A nice triangle formation from the 15-minute chart of the Gold futures contract in today's market. Spotting this kind of setup or formation needs keen understanding of the price action as well as the bars formation relative to multiple time frame. This is where pattern recognition in trading the market is a must for discretionary traders.

Labor Market

No market today for it's holiday, but the futures markets are open because it operates electronically. The indices (Nasdaq, NQ) were all gap up today, but the Crude and the Gold were gap down. The Nasdaq formed  a deep cup with a handle pattern. The Crude formed a small double cup but minus the handle (not able to sustain the load and it bends). While the Gold made a reversal forming a 'u' pattern like. All are in 15 - minute chart frame.

 

 

Better to Trade in the Overnight Session

It's better to trade in the overnight session (for Futures markets) because most of the participants are busy snoring. Not much noise and the market moves are quiet and smooth. And you can capture the big move in the overnight session because that's where the European and the Asian markets are active. Just take a look at the chart below for the Crude and the Gold and see/compare the movement from the overnight session (rectangle area) and the regular open (circled area). Just don't sleep and you can make a decent trade. You can have your decent sleep after you make your trade in the overnight session and let the suckers fight it out in the regular market.

 

 

Overnight Crude and Gold Trade Setup

The commodities made a nice run in the overnight session due to concern in Syria. Both the Crude and the Gold made a stunning move upwards. The Gold formed a shallow cup with a handle, while the Crude went up all the way to the hill and still climbing as of this posting. Seems it won't stop going up till the war breaks out.

 

Tuesday's Market Update

The market made an unprecedented move early in the overnight session due to main concern in Syria. The Gold formed a cup (or a double cup?) with a handle pattern as shown from this 15 - minute chart. While the Crude  formed a shallow cup. The Nasdaq made an inverse head and shoulder pattern that was originated from yesterday's session.

 

 

 

 

Monday's Market Update

The market made a different kind of moves today partly because its Monday, the first trading day of the week which is usually a gauging sentiment. The Nasdaq futures drops hard in the middle of the trading day when it move upwards into the open.  The Gold did not do any potential move except that it induce more volatility. Same with the Crude, though it gap up in the overnight open, it struggled for most of the whole trading day.

 

 

Gold Update

While the main market indices are struggling, the commodities especially the Gold is silently making its move to the upside. As can be seen from the daily chart below, it continues to defy the 'shorters' (the bears) and they are getting squeezed. The way I can see from my crystal ball is that it might reach the 1400 level and might consolidate a bit and then on the way to 1500.

Friday's Crude Trade Setup

A powerful reversal from the Crude market today. Notice that bullish hammer followed by another bullish candle that exactly move up from the hammer candle's closed price. Capturing this kind of move needs a lot of attention from the price action, and you need a wider stop.

Friday's Gold Trade Setup

Gold made a nice run from today's trading. Nice consolidation as shown from the rectangular area. This is where patience in waiting for the right opportunity pays off.

NASDAQ TO 'NASDARK'

The market was struggling moving upwards today when the Nasdaq (indices) experienced a breakdown around noontime and able to resume its trading activities two or three hours after. It's like a patient who loses its breath in the middle of the bypass surgery and was revive only through resuscitation. The chart below shows how it 'lost its breath'.

Is Gold On The Way Up?

Showing the daily chart below of the Gold futures market, the way I observe from the technical view seems it's on the way up. It penetrates the trend line and the ema's indicators are pointing upwards. And looks like it formed a shallow cup with a handle pattern. My best guess here is that it might reach or breach the 1400 level (this week?) and might stall from there. Let's find out this week's market.

Gold Made Another Big Leap

Gold made another stunning leap last Friday's market. It drops (down) early in the open but recovered dramatically. It maintained its thrust till the close. Looks like Gold starts to recover.

Gold Made a Double Leap

Shown is the 15-minute chart from the Gold Futures where it made a two vertical leap, the first from the overnight session and the second from the regular session. Capturing this kind of setup needs a lot of waiting and patience. Able to capture the first leap but missed the second one for I fell asleep, got tired waiting for it (Jesse Livermore says, 'Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon. I found it one of the hardest things to learn').

Sunday's Gold Trade Setup

Able to spot this price action from the Globex market and was quite successful in 'digging' the Gold for a nice opportunity. Got stop out on the first try but due to price action interpretation, tried to come back and capture the big vertical leap from Gold. That's what you called timing the opportunity and as what Jesse Livermore, the famous trader known for, it's the 'sitting that's making me money' (because I've been sitting from my trading table one hour before the Globex market has to open and was imagining/analyzing the market).

Here's the chart and how to be a Gold 'digger'!

Friday's Market Update

The market indices did not perform on the upside due to Friday's profit taking day. The S&P chart below made a chaotic move, the Crude made a nice upside direction, while the Gold mostly on the sideways. The Crude is the best instrument to make a trade last Friday's market, and the rest are not that quite tradeable. To make a good outcome in trading, you need to have a different instrument to monitor for better trading selection.

 

 

NQ's 'W' Trade Setup

The market drops hard in the open today only to make a reversal a couple of hours thereafter. It made a 'w' pattern that shows a double support as shown from the 5-min chart below. Timing the reversal and riding the sloping ema's upwards is the best opportunity to make a trade in today's market.

So What Now With The Market

Nothing, do nothing, if you don't know what's going on with the market do nothing, as what Jim Rogers professed. The broad indices are topping out, including the Crude, and the Gold is struggling too. So what now in the market for traders, either take a break, watch the market price action, learn, go over with the mistakes, find something to do, or hibernate for a while. The market seems exhausted from this observer's point of view. It's time to make a break for the market participants, month of August and September in the market is a bit slow. Most participants are going on a holiday/vacation. The charts below shows how the market is up to.

 

 

Crude Wrong Setup

This refers to my earlier post regarding 'Crude Bullish Cup?'. Was wrong with my observation and got stopped at 106 as shown below. That's how the market is, it's all about probabilities, we cannot predict the market movement. All we have to do is admit we are wrong and  move on. Wait for the next trade or look for other opportunities, or might as well reverse the trade. That's how to be in the market, ready to change/adapt. In this chart, the bullish cup with a handle pattern failed.

Crude Bullish Cup?

Shown in here is the 5-hour chart from the Crude (WTI) which is forming a bullish cup with a handle pattern from the technical view of this observer. The handle is forming due to its double support from the 106 range level. While the cup was firmly/flatly supported at 103 range level. I guess it is time to put a long position at the current level with stop at the support, 106.

Monday's 'Autistic' Market

Today's market was confusing and sorry for that title word, no offense please, it's just for 'figure of speech' describing today's market environment. As everybody knows who are in the market, it moves more than that. Anyway, today's market is for the quants or the HFT's, not for the discretionary traders. Just look at the charts below, isn't these charts are all confused?

 

 

Market's Random Thoughts

It's a weekend and was summarizing the market activities the past week or so, and considering the news and the Calendar events that was scheduled, the market still made an uptrend move. Unless you are a short term participants as compared with the long 'termers', you will experienced a nerve wracking emotional pulse because of the market's up and down swing. Well, that's how the market is, if the market doesn't move in a pulsating manner, there is no market at all, the market is like a human being.

The market is topping up, it might consolidate or will move sideways within the coming days or possibly weeks. Profiteers are readying their wide basket to catch any (abrupt) potential drop of green bucks anytime. Let's get ready to 'rumble' (or ruckus) as the famous Michael Buffer always voiced out.

Anyway, better for the short term participants to make a break in the coming days or possibly weeks. Time to reflect something outside our comfort zone once in a while and have something enjoy a quiet environment.

Been a while studying/observing the market in our humble ways and it's important to have some break once in a while and think/do something different. Get some exercise possibly, do some painting, read some motivational books or whatever that can inspire us in our lives will do good. Set some goals, have more dreams, as they said, 'if you feel that your life is closer to average than you desire, you need to do more dreaming'.

From Malcom Gladwell's book Outliers, to master a craft in any field, one needs around 10,000 hours of practice in order to become used to it or become successful. That's a lot of hard work, and that's what we've been trying to practice in the market, we need continuous learning in the market. When dealing with the market, one need to be adaptable, because the market is an ever changing environment.

But we need to be balanced, not only in our life but in any of our endeavor. Also we need to continue in our learning and to continue to prepare, because when there is a chance or opportunity, we are ready to grab it. That we can apply in the market, we need to be always ready and timing is important in the market.

Vertical Leap From Gold

Quite messy in the market today especially in the regular session and also a choppy move in the Globex market earlier. Likewise the indices (S&P, Nasdaq, and the Dow), the Crude is on the profit taking mode (partly because it's Friday, most participants will enjoy their loot in the bar?), while the Gold partly recovered when it made a very heavy leap as shown below. Gold made a Darvas 'box' consolidation below the support (S3, from real platform) until it burst like a rocket powered by a high octane fuel. Have a nice weekend fellow traders, enjoy your $!

Market Update

Market indices continues to move upside for the FOMC (per reports yesterday) continues to purchase notes to augment the economy. The Crude bounced back from yesterday's positive employment report coupled with the jobless claims in today's favorable result. The Gold is still struggling, it continues to move sideways. Trading today is quite tricky for most of the big moves happened in the overnight session, if you are not quite fast enough to trade in the regular session, all you can have is the dust in your face for you are late in riding the bus, just wait for the next bus to arrive.

 

 

Crude Trade Setup

Showing here a 1-minute chart from the Crude where this market observer able to spot the triangle pattern for a precise trade execution. Spotting this kind of pattern one need to be focused and price action should be observed keenly for the market make its move in a fast pace environment.

Bonus Stock Tip - YRCW

Introducing my free Stock Tip as a gesture for some investors/traders who follow this humble market observer (if there are). I am inclined to recommend this trucking firm as a buy between $28 to $30 with stop at $24. It might reach a sell at $40. But know your risk tolerance and study carefully the company before investing/trading. But from the technical view of this observer, there is a potential to the upside, but that's not a guarantee. Trade/invest at your own risk. 

 

Crude is 'leaking'?

Seems the Crude is on the way to the drain from this daily chart. It is forming a head and shoulder pattern with its left (?) shoulder already lowering, a sign that a bearish sentiment is in the offing. That's what the interpretation of this 'self-proclaimed' technical observer. Well, as everybody in the market (and other pundits) has its own interpretation in the market, and we all ended up on the wrong side of the market. But that's how in the market, we can make our own opinion since nobody knows what the market will do next. The market is an exercise of human behavior, and all human make drastic action at any given moment. But I guess the Crude market right now is on the way down or it might turn sideways. The sentiment this  week in the market is of 'indecision' because of the weekly calendar events. Participants are gauging each others throat what the next move might/will be. But according the Art Cashin, CNBC contributor, we're going to expect some fireworks this week. Let's see what that fireworks would be. Also, Prince Khalid Al Waleed of Saudi Arabia caution the OPEC last week that Crude oil is not much going to be in-demand in the US for sometime because of the continuous exploration of  domestic 'fracking'.

A Climatic 'V' Position

A very powerful reversal happened this Friday's market, especially for the Dow and the S&P as shown from this 15-minute chart. Notice the  hard drop (catching the falling knife) that originates from the Globex (overnight session) till the first hour or so from the open. A powerful 'v' (position???) formation emerge that turn the tide to the bull side. Catching this kind of trade is the best opportunity even in the middle portion of the trade. You don't need to catch or buy the low (deep) and sell at the top, just trade the middle portion is the best trade to make a gain, as the famous Bernard Baruch profess, 'I made my money selling early'. Just ride the 4ema (the blue line) and you will not go anywhere except to the bank!

Is Gold 'Digging' Up?

Was looking up at the Gold Futures the past week and seems it's starts to rise up from the 'dead'? With the daily chart below, the July contract is forming a small 'cup with a handle' pattern, a sign of a bullish trend. And it formed a 'w' pattern, with a double support. I guess John Paulson starts to have a sigh of relief, for his position in the Gold had been battered for almost a year on the bear side. Ready to 'dig' for the Gold?, I guess it will be good now for the 'gold diggers'!

 

Visa (V) - A Classic Example of Long Term Investment

Showing here a monthly and weekly chart of Visa since its IPO in the latter part of 2009. The monthly chart shows the classic cup with a handle pattern, a bullish sign. And the other is the weekly chart showing its unprecedented upward movement. This is the kind of Warren Buffet/Peter Lynch classic example of long term investment, buy the business and sleep/or a 'buy what you know' thing.