Saturday, April 26, 2014
Saturday, March 29, 2014
Monday's Market 3/31
Observation and the Trade for Monday's Market
The market was so erratic for the past month and was on the verge of dropping hard but some participants are not that in one conviction, pulling each other's throat that turns the market on a zigzag mode. The daily chart (below) of the S&P shows a deep cup with a handle pattern but the handle is extending, which is showing a concern as far as this humble market observer 'crystalizes'. The bars (red) especially the bigger ones are very 'scary', they are on the verge of dropping hard at any moment. I guess the bears are anticipating shorting the market here, while the bulls are just making it safe by putting a hard 'stop' for protection. If that happens, expect a brief hard push upwards for a 'short squeeze' and then on the way to the bottom?
20140329070111.png)
For the Gold, there is no sign of relief unless John Paulson will buy the market here, but that is a foregone observation. But no one knows, except that it is dropping slowly, like squeezing one's neck bit by bit until it loses its breath - that's scary. Just take the Gold day by day, and monitor the Chinese or the Indian's angst for Gold, they might buy the yellow metal in bulk, if that happens, trade in-between to capture the abrupt move in case.
20140329070207.png)
As for the Crude, it is moving upwards, it still a good swing here, but most likely a very tight fight between participant's opposing views. The best trade is on a day to day basis, probably on a short time frame. Expect a hard drop and hard push upwards, but it depends on how participants behave, so watch for it. Unless some major on-goings overseas might happened, especially of that in the Eastern Europe?, so be very vigilant out there traders.
20140329070237.png)
Check the Calendar Events below for guidance.
http://mam.econoday.com/byweek.asp?day=31&month=3&year=2014&cust=mam&lid=0
The market was so erratic for the past month and was on the verge of dropping hard but some participants are not that in one conviction, pulling each other's throat that turns the market on a zigzag mode. The daily chart (below) of the S&P shows a deep cup with a handle pattern but the handle is extending, which is showing a concern as far as this humble market observer 'crystalizes'. The bars (red) especially the bigger ones are very 'scary', they are on the verge of dropping hard at any moment. I guess the bears are anticipating shorting the market here, while the bulls are just making it safe by putting a hard 'stop' for protection. If that happens, expect a brief hard push upwards for a 'short squeeze' and then on the way to the bottom?
For the Gold, there is no sign of relief unless John Paulson will buy the market here, but that is a foregone observation. But no one knows, except that it is dropping slowly, like squeezing one's neck bit by bit until it loses its breath - that's scary. Just take the Gold day by day, and monitor the Chinese or the Indian's angst for Gold, they might buy the yellow metal in bulk, if that happens, trade in-between to capture the abrupt move in case.
As for the Crude, it is moving upwards, it still a good swing here, but most likely a very tight fight between participant's opposing views. The best trade is on a day to day basis, probably on a short time frame. Expect a hard drop and hard push upwards, but it depends on how participants behave, so watch for it. Unless some major on-goings overseas might happened, especially of that in the Eastern Europe?, so be very vigilant out there traders.
Check the Calendar Events below for guidance.
http://mam.econoday.com/byweek.asp?day=31&month=3&year=2014&cust=mam&lid=0
Friday, March 28, 2014
Friday's Market
Though today's market, Friday, supposed to be a profit taking day, but the ES made a surprise move, it surge vertically in the open that caught some participants off guard and were left out, or what they call a short 'squeeze'?
The Gold continues its downward projection that there is no sign of relief, I guess its 'melting' will last to the last ounce, not a good sign.
As for the Crude, it is surging slowly, lots of motorist are still filling their old SUV with premium gasoline, Elon Musk should lower the cost of his Tesla cars to prevent the surging cost of the Crude I guess.
20140328080415.png)
20140328080428.png)
20140328080437.png)
The Gold continues its downward projection that there is no sign of relief, I guess its 'melting' will last to the last ounce, not a good sign.
As for the Crude, it is surging slowly, lots of motorist are still filling their old SUV with premium gasoline, Elon Musk should lower the cost of his Tesla cars to prevent the surging cost of the Crude I guess.
Thursday, March 27, 2014
Trading By Myself
Just to summarize my Crude trade that I had shown in real time (though delayed a bit, but if you are alert even though you're a little bit late in seeing my alert, you can still gain from my humble tip(s)) about my 'Tip Alert' post, I am just going to show here or prove that I can make a trade based from my own learning through technical observation without employing 'sophistication'.
As you can see from my alert, I've shown a 1-hr chart with a box showing the hard bounce and the hard drop in succession, four days of bouncing from the s/r level (you just have to figure that out for you to learn, I am doing this for educational too). I am just making my own interpretation from this box as a 'Darvas' ( I just don't know if that's what really is, I don't care but that's how I do my own observation, that's why my blog is about that).
So from this observation, if you are (only) observant in the market (and was reading the 'minds of the market'), you know the market is an exercise of human behavior, so you have to learn more about psychology in this case. With this kind of pattern, the most probable outcome is for the market to move up. Why did I came up with that? Simple, have you seen the 'rapid' move upwards on the left side (the one that I cover (half of it) when I drew the rectangular box. That's my basis that it is going to make a move.
20140326220140.png)
Also, from the 5-hr chart, the pattern is a 'saucer pan'?, or a shallow cup with a handle pattern ( we need to familiarize ourselves with the different market patterns, that's important), signaling a bullish move is in the works.
20140327060001.png)
20140327060828.png)
20140327061228.png)
As you can see from my alert, I've shown a 1-hr chart with a box showing the hard bounce and the hard drop in succession, four days of bouncing from the s/r level (you just have to figure that out for you to learn, I am doing this for educational too). I am just making my own interpretation from this box as a 'Darvas' ( I just don't know if that's what really is, I don't care but that's how I do my own observation, that's why my blog is about that).
So from this observation, if you are (only) observant in the market (and was reading the 'minds of the market'), you know the market is an exercise of human behavior, so you have to learn more about psychology in this case. With this kind of pattern, the most probable outcome is for the market to move up. Why did I came up with that? Simple, have you seen the 'rapid' move upwards on the left side (the one that I cover (half of it) when I drew the rectangular box. That's my basis that it is going to make a move.
Also from the daily chart below, the big bullish bar is a sign that there is a follow through.
That's the basis of making that trade through my own observation, that's what I call 'looking at the whole market structure'.
See, Crude is still cruising as of this posting...
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