The market drops like a bomb today due to usual Greek debt problem.

The Greek problem is always the real culprit when the market drops hard.

That has been the cause since last year.

For today's trade, a good location to place an entry is in the reversal.

I can see an inverse head and shoulder pattern here, but the target should be carefully keep an eye because the volatility is at high range.

Quick reversal happens in just a blink of an eye.

Aim and Shoot the Right Target

As the picture shows, shooting or aiming for the right target also applies in trading.

Like in today's trading range, the market zigzag and if you cannot find the right entry you cannot make a trade (target).

Aiming for the right entry or looking for the right location to make a trade is similar in hitting your target as what the man (Liam Neeson) is aiming.

In today's trading, I find two good locations that are probable to trade.

The first one is a short trade when the market formed a head and shoulder pattern.

And the second one, a long trade when it formed a cup with a handle pattern.

Same story from yesterday's trading.

Manoj Bhargava, the Man Behind 5 Hour Energy

By: Mark Hanna
Posted on: February 9, 2012 at 2:30 pm
Tags: 5 Hour Energy

Manoj Bhargava.
Who?
Yes that is what I said too…
While this is a private company, I found it to be a fascinating story since it is always interesting to hear where these out of the blue blockbuster products come from. I had no idea it was a local story as well. I had heard Detroit Lions coach Jim Schwartz was at the Super Bowl, on the dole (i.e. pitching) 5 Hour Energy and it seemed like a strange connection, but now I see why he was a choice (again, local). Believe it or not I've never imbibed any sort of energy drink such as Monster or Red Bull, nor have I touched this 5 Hour Energy thing – but apparently I am in the minority as these are huge sellers. It's a long write up in Forbes – some snippets below:

• In eight years 5-Hour has gone from nowhere to $1 billion in retail sales. Truckers swear by it. So do the traders in Oliver Stone’s 2010 sequel to Wall Street. So do hungover ­students. It’s $3 a bottle, and it has made Bhargava a fortune.
• His company, Living Essentials, is the biggest player by far in the ­energy-shot market, and not because 5-Hour is so delicious. Chalky cough syrup is more like it. The reason Bhargava has won is that he plays tough. Sitting in that cemetery are a dozen or so neon copycats with names like 6-Hour Power and 8-Hour Energy. Each has been sued, bullied or kicked off the market by Living Essentials’ lawyers. In front of each are little placards with a skull and crossbones drawn in felt-tip pen. Bhargava points at the gravestone of one of his late competitors and says with a chuckle, “Rest in peace.”
• The privately held Living Essentials doesn’t report revenue or profits, but a source with knowledge of its financials says the company grossed north of $600 million last year on that $1 billion at retail. The source says the company netted about $300 million. Checkout scan data from research firm SymphonyIRI say that 5-Hour has 90% of the energy-shot market. Its closest competitor, NVE Pharmaceuticals’ Stacker brand, has just over 3%.
• Yet Bhargava, 58, is so under the radar that he barely registers on Web searches. His paper trail is thin, consisting primarily of more than 90 lawsuits. This is his first press interview. Colleagues and acquaintances uniformly describe Bhargava as “humble,” and he seems proud of his frugal lifestyle: his ancient flip phone, his cheap office furniture, the modest two-story home he shares with his wife and 20-year-old son. Yet, over vegetarian lasagna at Antonio’s, his favorite strip-mall Italian joint off Detroit’s Twelve-Mile Road, Bhargava says, apropos of nothing: “I’m probably the wealthiest Indian in America.”
• The rise of 5-Hour began in the spring of 2003, when Bhargava found himself at a natural products trade show in Anaheim, Calif. At one booth the sales reps peddled a 16-ounce concoction claiming to boost productivity for hours. Bhargava took a swig. “For the next six or seven hours I was in great shape,” he says. “I thought, Wow, this is amazing. I can sell this.”
• Right away, though, he knew 16 ounces wouldn’t sell. He didn’t want to compete with Red Bull, at the time new to the market. Nor did he want to share fridge space with Coke or Pepsi. “I thought, If I’m tired, am I also thirsty? Is that like having a headache and a stomachache? It didn’t make any sense.” He glanced at the ingredients label and made a mental note. Six months later his version was on the shelves, two ounces of ­caffeine-infused B vitamins such as niacin mixed with acids like taurine.

The market almost finish where it came from in today's trading.

It drops from the high open after an hour or so and just recover late in the close.

It formed the classic cup with a handle pattern.

Trading today's market was a little bit tricky if you are not particular with the pattern formation that are developing.

From the first hour, it formed a head and shoulder pattern, a sign that a bearish signal is on the way - and it did.

And from between 11:00 am. to 12:00 noon ET., the cup with handle formation is developing - and it did.

Those are the two setups that should have taken into account in trading today.

The market drops today from the positive open.

The Greek problem was the culprit today from the market reversal.

Also some profit taking opportunity was the added factor in reversing the market upside momentum.

Careful trading should be taken into account while trading and also pattern recognition should always be observed.

Well Funded Traders vs. Underfunded Traders

In this piece, I will post something regarding the above. I am referring to the regular retail traders who do trades in their own places/home offices, in the Starbucks cafe, (and not the institutions).

Comparing the two traders above, the following are my observations:

Well Funded Traders:

They have funds enough within their capacity to deal with the margin and have confidence on how much they can allocate with the number of contracts/shares they can trade.

You don't feel much about the volatility movement because you can put a wide stop, thus minimizing your number of stops that are getting hit or getting triggered.

Have much leeway on how much you can allow from your buy price to your stop price - and this is a great help on the part of the traders since this is about confidence and the emotional impact it develops while in the trade.

Underfunded Traders:

For the underfunded traders, there lots of disadvantages.

First, you cannot trade that much because of limited funds and are afraid of the loses especially when volatility is at high range.

You are prone to putting tight stops, thus you are always subject to getting hit often - one cause that depletes your (minimal) account (and more commission costs).

Your emotional part is prone to your trading concentration because of uneasiness - you have no confidence to trade even though your parameters or edge are on your side.

These are just few observations, but there are advantages and disadvantages on both sides too (vice versa). That all depends on how you treat trading.

There are some underfunded traders who are discipline and have plans. They use their time in learning while building their capital.

It would be better that way to trade first on a few amount that you can afford to lose while learning.

Build first your knowledge on how the market works, and when you are ready to trade, you have already the idea in trading.

But the important thing is you should be in the market - develop your skills.

Actual trading is more important than theory.

You can read all the expensive books ever written by great authors/traders but if you don't practice trading - you will end up losing your capital, time, and your mind too (if your are not paying attention).

Developing traders should be in the market action, and you must sleep and breath the market all the time!

Puplava: listen to what the markets are saying

 

Puplava: listen to what the markets are saying

While catching up with Chris Puplava's latest market update last night, I had to stop and share some of his words with our followers on Twitter.

Read the opening of Chris' article, "Stop Talking and Start Listening!". You'll find some worthwhile comments on interpreting data and the importance of maintaining accountability in one's market calls.

"...Far too often investment managers and economists spend more time espousing their views and then defending them until eventually proven right (“I was just early”), rather than spending more time analyzing their assumptions and being honest enough to say, “I WAS WRONG!” and then moving forward.

Part of the problem is that they create a view and then find evidence to support their views rather than starting from the bottom up by collecting an exhaustive amount of data and then summarizing the collective message rather than their views.

Basically, listen to the message of the markets and then interpret those messages rather than telling the markets what they should be doing. What the market IS doing is far more important than what you think the market SHOULD be doing..."

This is an excellent summary of one of the biggest problems I see in the 24/7 cycle of market commentary and trading. People have become too enamored of their own market view/"thesis" and too concerned about the risk to their reputations to come out and admit they're wrong.

Of course, if you are tied to a certain view or position and can't admit you are wrong, it could have an adverse effect on your trading or investing returns. Some people may hesitate to cut their losses on a bad trade or reverse their position (say, by going from short to long on a certain security or asset) if they've anchored themselves to a privately held or publicly expressed view.

Now that blogs and real-time social networks have allowed us all to become "mini-pundits", the risk of spouting off in public and ignoring the message of the markets has shifted down from media stars and big-name fund managers to the rest of us.

But guess what? That also provides us with an opportunity to face the music and occasionally admit we were wrong about something, which may actually help build trust with our audience (and in ourselves) in the long-term.

Because let's face it: no one wants to listen to someone who is never wrong and is always (magically) right. Why? Simple. Such people don't exist, oracles and sages of mythology aside.

Now back to the macro view. Despite some well-known recent calls for recession from ECRI and others, Puplava feels the markets and economy are in "bullish harmony" and are sending us a message that there is no bear market or recession ahead. Take a look at the article and examine the arguments for yourself.

And remember, hold yourself accountable for your own market actions and judgements. Try not to impose your views on the market, and try to be flexible in your trading, especially when it comes to admitting you are wrong about something. Your thinking and your results might improve!

Posted by David Shvartsman at 5:11 PM